On the Right Note: February 2026

On the Right Note is Raison’s regular analytical digest focused on its structured notes portfolio. In each issue, we go beyond reporting results to explain the underlying logic: how market conditions shape performance, how protective mechanisms work, and how strategies behave on actual observation dates. The material helps noteholders better understand their assets and allows prospective investors to see how downside protection works in practice.

February: Neutral Market Conditions and Localized Volatility

Market conditions in February 2026 remained broadly similar to those seen at the beginning of the year. The macroeconomic environment stayed largely neutral, while market movements were moderate. Despite several episodes of increased volatility, structured notes continued to demonstrate resilience thanks to their built-in protection mechanisms.

Between February 1 and February 28, 2026, observation dates occurred for 9 notes:

• 7 notes remained active, including one individual (diversified) note.
• 2 notes were redeemed early via Autocall, including one individual note.
• 2 active notes triggered the Memory Effect.

Market Environment and Key Events

Monetary policy in both the United States and Europe remained neutral during February. Central banks maintained current interest rate levels and have not yet signaled a near-term shift toward monetary easing. At the same time, the technology sector experienced a partial reassessment of expectations. Investors have become more cautious about the rising capital expenditures by major tech companies on artificial intelligence infrastructure. While many companies continue to report revenues above analysts’ expectations, markets anticipate a gradual decline in margins, creating moderate pressure on the sector.

Volatility during the month was higher than in January. The VIX index remained elevated amid tariff uncertainty in the middle of the month and growing geopolitical concerns.

Since the start of the year, major U.S. indices have shown mixed performance:

• S&P 500: −1.8%
• Nasdaq 100: −3.6%
• Russell 2000: +1.9%

Some events that occurred at the end of February were not yet reflected in market prices, as trading had already closed for the weekend.

Impact on Structured Notes

Despite moderate corrections in the technology sector and localized increases in volatility, February had a limited impact on structured products overall. The underlying assets of most notes remain comfortably above their coupon barriers.

In periods of relatively flat market dynamics, structured notes tend to demonstrate their strengths particularly well. While major indices may show near-zero or even negative returns, structured notes can continue to generate returns due to their structural design.

Built-in capital protection mechanisms allow investors to navigate periods of market uncertainty with a more controlled level of risk while maintaining the potential for regular coupon income.

Notes in Detail

We now move from market trends to specific figures. Below are the notes that reached observation dates during February. They are grouped into three categories: Active, Autocalled, and Memory Effect.

Each note card includes:

• Basket composition: the underlying assets being tracked.
• Coupon status: whether the coupon was confirmed for the period.
• Actual return: investor income per $100,000 invested.

Active Notes

AI-Empowered Digital Platforms | ISIN: XS3083887359

Robotics Infrastructure | ISIN: XS2984920160

Electric Vehicles | ISIN: XS2984920327

Digital Infrastructure | ISIN: XS2984920244

Autocalled (Redeemed Early)

Oil and Gas | ISIN: XS2794281886

Memory Effect

Semiconductors | ISIN: XS2628855426

Why the Memory Effect Was Triggered

On the observation date, Enphase Energy (ENPH) traded temporarily below the coupon barrier. Under the terms of the note, the coupon for the period is preserved and will be paid once the asset recovers above the barrier level.

In Q4 2025, Enphase Energy reported improved operating performance: revenue slightly exceeded market expectations, and earnings per share exceeded analysts’ forecasts. The company also raised its revenue guidance for Q1 2026.

Another underlying asset in the basket, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), had previously faced margin pressure due to increased competition and rising component costs. However, in the latest quarter, the company exceeded lowered market expectations. Demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong, and SMCI’s revenue continues to grow.

In this context, the current situation can be viewed as a temporary deviation. All accumulated coupons will be paid once the underlying assets recover above the barrier level.

Software ISIN | XS2428201185

Why the Memory Effect Was Triggered

At the observation date, one of the underlying assets in the basket, Doximity (DOCS), temporarily fell below the coupon barrier. Under the terms of the note, the coupon for the period is preserved and will be paid once the asset recovers above the barrier level.

Financial indicators, including cash flow, balance sheet strength, and market share, point to Doximity’s solid position. The company maintains a strong standing within its segment and offers a product that remains widely used within the medical community. The current price movement can therefore be viewed as a temporary deviation that does not affect the eventual payment of accumulated coupons.

Looking Ahead

February once again demonstrated the resilience of Raison’s protective strategies. During the month, two notes, including one individual strategy, were redeemed early via Autocall, while the majority of instruments remained active.

Even during localized volatility in individual assets, the Memory Effect helps preserve investor income by accumulating coupons until market levels recover. We continue to structure products around key macro trends while maintaining a balance between attractive yield and robust protection mechanisms.

Interested in learning more about Raison structured notes? Contact us, and we will provide all the details.