12. jaanuar 2026

January 22–28, 2025: Weekly economic update

Key market updates

Performance of Key Assets in 2025:

Over the past week, market sentiment remained broadly constructive despite ongoing geopolitical risks and weaker macroeconomic data relative to the Federal Reserve’s policy targets. Risk assets delivered the strongest performance.

U.S. inflation expectations have resumed an upward trajectory. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points; however, most other labor market indicators continue to point to a further deceleration in employment dynamics. At the same time, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates current U.S. GDP growth at 5.4%.

Since the suspension of quantitative tightening (QT), the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded by 0.59% to USD 6.57 trillion.

The interest rate swaps market (FedWatch) is currently pricing in two policy rate cuts in 2026, with the first cut now deferred to the July meeting. The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting (January 28) stands at just 4.43%.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, signaling potential criminal exposure related to a multi-year renovation project involving the Federal Reserve’s historic office buildings.

Chair Powell commented: “These unprecedented actions should be viewed in the broader context of threats and ongoing pressure from the administration.”

United States

Policy rate unchanged; communication remains cautious.
Monetary policy stance remains moderately restrictive, with a gradual shift toward neutral.
The Federal Reserve is maintaining a careful balance: supporting financial markets while avoiding signals of an accelerated rate-cutting cycle.
U.S. macroeconomic data continue to support a soft-landing scenario: economic growth remains above potential, inflation is decelerating, and the labor market is cooling without signs of recession.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER):

Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.6% (prev: 3.0%).
CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.4%); (y/y) 2.7% (prev: 3.0%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER):

PPI (m/m): 0.3%, prev: -0.1%.
Core PPI (m/m): 0.1%, prev: -0.1%.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (DECEMBER):

12-month inflation expectations: 4.2%, prev: 4.1%;
5-year inflation expectations: 3.4%, prev: 3.2%.

CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER)

(the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge):

(m/m): 0.2%, prev: 0.2%; (y/y): 2.8%, prev: 2.9%.

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q3 2025, annualized, advance estimate): +4.3% (Q2 2025: +3.8%). GDPNow Indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Q4): 5.4% (prev: 5.5%):

(The GDPNow forecasting model provides a “current” estimate of the official figure prior to its release, estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to that employed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.)

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (DECEMBER):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

Services sector: 52.5 (prev: 54.9);
Manufacturing sector: 51.8 (prev: 51.8);
S&P Global Composite: 52.7 (prev: 53.0).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (December)

Unemployment rate: 4.4% (prev: 4.6%);
Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits in the U.S.: 1,914K (prev: 1,923K, revised);
Initial jobless claims: 208K (prev: 200K);
Change in nonfarm payrolls: 37K (prev: 64K);
Change in private nonfarm payrolls: 37K (prev: 69K);
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.8% (prev: 3.5%);
Number of job openings (JOLTS): 7.146M (prev: 7.227M).

MONETARY POLICY

Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: USD 6.573T, + 0.59% since the suspension of quantitative tightening (USD 6.535T).

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

Next FOMC Meeting (January 28): the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 4.43%.

12-Month Outlook: the market is pricing in two 25 bp rate cuts, bringing the policy rate to a 3.00–3.25% range. The first cut is expected in July, following three FOMC meetings.

Today:

А week earlier:

Market

SP500

Year-to-Date: +1.76% (week-end close: 6,966.29).

NASDAQ100

Year-to-Date: +2.05% (week-end close: 25,766.26).

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Year-to-Date: +5.73% (week-end close: 2,624.22).

VIX

The VIX volatility index is again trading near its lows, with the week closing below the 15-point threshold.

Regarding the outlook for the U.S. equity market next year, the Wall Street consensus remains moderately bullish. The upper bound of the forecast range extends above the 8,000 level, while the lower bound is anchored around 7,000. Sentiment is supported by expectations of approximately 14% corporate earnings growth in 2026, alongside continued advancements and adoption in artificial intelligence.

Eurozone

Policy rates remain unchanged; inflation is under control.
The monetary policy stance is neutral, with the balance of risks shifting from inflation toward economic weakness.
As trade tensions ease, the ECB has revised its medium-term GDP and inflation forecasts upward.
Europe is stabilizing, but growth momentum continues to lag that of the United States.

Interest Rates:

Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (previous: 2.0%).
Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%), the rate at which banks can access overnight liquidity from the central bank.
Short-term (policy) rate: 2.15% (previous: 2.15%).

Inflation (November CPI):

Core CPI (YoY): 2.3% (previous: 2.4%).

GDP (Q3, final estimate):

Quarter-on-quarter: 0.3% (previous: 0.1%).
Year-on-year: 1.4% (previous: 1.5%).

Unemployment Rate (December): 6.23% (previous: 6.4%).

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI, December):

Services: 52.4 (previous: 52.6).
Manufacturing: 48.8 (previous: 49.2).
S&P Global Composite: 51.5 (previous: 51.9).

EURO STOXX 600

Year-to-Date: +2.96% (week-end close: 611.6).

China

The economy is stabilizing on the back of exports, while domestic demand and investment remain subdued; policy support remains targeted and cautious.
Policy rates unchanged.
Monetary policy stance remains accommodative.
China has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining fiscal support for economic growth under its 2026 framework, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand, optimizing tax incentives and subsidies, and advancing industrial modernization.

Interest Rates:

1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.50%.
5Y Loan Prime Rate (five-year benchmark, relevant for mortgage pricing): 3.50%.

Inflation Indicators (December):

Consumer Price Index (CPI), month-on-month: 0.2% (previous: −0.1%); year-on-year: 0.8% (previous: 0.7%).

Producer Prices and Activity Indicators:

Producer Price Index (PPI), year-on-year: −1.9% (previous: −2.2%).
Unemployment rate (November): 5.1% (previous: 5.1%).
Industrial production (November), year-on-year: 4.8% (previous: 4.9%).
Fixed asset investment (November), year-on-year: −2.6% (previous: −1.7%).
Retail sales (November), year-on-year: 1.3% (previous: 2.9%).

External Trade (December):

Imports, year-on-year: 1.9% (previous: 1.0%).
Exports, year-on-year: 5.9% (previous: −1.1%).
Trade balance (USD, December): USD 111.68 billion (previous: USD 90.7 billion).

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI, November):

Manufacturing: 49.2 (previous: 49.0).
Non-manufacturing: 49.0 (previous: 49.0).
Composite PMI: 49.5 (previous: 50.1).

CSI 300 INDEX

Year-to-Date: +2.79% (week-end close: 4758.692).

HANG SENG TECH INDEX (HSTECH.HK)

Year-to-Date: +3.10% (week-end close: 5687.14).

BOND MARKET

Yields and credit spreads do not point to a scenario of a deep recession or elevated systemic risk. U.S. Treasuries 20+ Years (ETF: TLT): year-to-date return of +0.88%, with the week closing at 87.93.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.17% (previous: 4.14%); 2-year Treasury yield: 3.54% (previous: 3.49%).
ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index – Effective Yield: 5.04% (previous: 5.01%).
10Y–2Y U.S. Treasury yield spread: 63 basis points (previous: 68 bps).
10Y–3M U.S. Treasury yield spread: 57 basis points (previous: 54 bps).

U.S. 5-Year Credit Default Swap (CDS): 26.54 bps, down from 26.99 bps last week, indicating stable sovereign credit risk. MacroMicro Global Recession Indicator: remains below the 50-point threshold, signaling a low probability of a global recession scenario:

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Year-to-Date: +4.30%, with the week closing at $4,518.4 per troy ounce. The appreciation in gold prices is driven by a combination of sustained central bank demand and the continued rapid expansion of global sovereign and public-sector debt.

Gold Price Forecasts from Leading Banks and Asset Managers (End-2026): the range of estimates remains wide, with the consensus average broadly in line with current spot levels:

In 2025, gold surpassed the U.S. dollar to become the world’s largest reserve asset.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Year-to-Date: +0.92%, with the week closing at 98.92. The U.S. dollar remains highly sensitive to interest rate differentials, but is likely to find near-term support amid a pause in the rate-cutting cycle.

The oil market has reacted calmly to recent developments. Venezuela’s role in global oil supply is currently marginal, accounting for less than 1% of total production. Output has declined sharply in recent years due to sanctions. However, an increase in heavy crude supply—Venezuela’s primary grade—should be expected over the medium term, with potential growth over the next three to five years.

OIL FUTURES

Year-to-Date: +2.39%, with the week closing at $58.78 per barrel.

Expectations of supply growth in the oil market remain intact.
Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is expected to pause further increases in output, while geopolitical developments in Venezuela and the Middle East add an additional layer of uncertainty.

The USD 56 per barrel level continues to act as a strong technical support.

The crypto market continues to evolve along institutional lines: expanding infrastructure, increasing participation by banks, and rising on-chain liquidity are shaping a more mature market environment, with no clear signs of speculative overheating.