November 3–7, 2025: Weekly economic update

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION

• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (September): 0,2% (previous: 0.3%)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (September): 0.3% (previous: 0.4%)
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (September): 3.0% (previous: 3.1%)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (September): 3.0% (previous: 2.9%)

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN)

• 12-month expected inflation (August): 4.7% (prev: 4.6%)
• 5-year expected inflation (August): 3.6% (prev: 3.9%)

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI):

• PPI (m/m) (August): -0.1%, prev: 0.7%
• Core PPI (m/m) (August): -0.1%, prev: 0.7%

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q2 2025, annualized, third estimate): +3.8% (advance estimate: 3.30%; Q1 2024: – 0.5%)

Business Activity Index (PMI):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector (October): 54.8 (previous: 54.2)
• Manufacturing sector (October): 52.5 (previous: 52.2)
• S&P Global Composite (October): 54.6 (previous: 53.9)

LABOR MARKET (OCTOBER): due to the temporary government shutdown, the data is unavailable.

• Unemployment rate: - (prev. 4.3%)
• Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits in the US: - (vs 1,920K).
• Change in Nonfarm Employment (ADP), October: 42K (previous: -29K, revised)
• Change in U.S. Private Nonfarm Employment: —
• Average Hourly Earnings (y/y): — (previous: 3.7%)
• Number of Job Openings (JOLTS): — (vs 7.227M)

MONETARY POLICY

• Federal Funds Effective Rate (EFFR): 3.75% - 4.0%
• Federal Reserve balance sheet increased: $6,572T (vs. previous week: $6,587T)

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

Expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 29:

Today:

А week earlier:

Commentary

The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate to a range of 3.75–4.0% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction.

Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the risks remain tilted toward the labor market, though with less concern than in previous meetings, and the regulator signaled a possible pause in rate cuts at the December meeting.

This decision by the Fed is likely the right one to achieve better control over the balance of risks between inflation and business activity.

The key takeaway is that the Fed confirmed its monetary policy will continue shifting from restrictive to neutral.

Market expectations reflected by FedWatch continue to run ahead of the Federal Reserve.

• For the next meeting (December 10): the estimated probability of a 0.25% rate cut stands at 64.9%.
• Over the next 12 months: three 0.25% cuts are anticipated, bringing the target range to 3.00–3.25%.

Market

SP500

Weekly performance — -1.63% (week closed at 6,728.81). Year-to-date performance for 2025: +13.98%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance — -3.09% (week closed at 25,059.81). Year-to-date performance: +18.65%.

RUSSEL 2000

Weekly performance — -1.88% (week closed at 2,432.824). Year-to-date performance: +8.55%.

VIX

Week closed at: 19.08

EU

At its latest meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone, stating that current policy is sufficient to keep prices near the target level. Following this communication, markets are now pricing in a prolonged period of neutral monetary policy

Interest rates:

• Deposit rate: 2.0% (previous: 2.0%)
• Marginal lending rate: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%)
• Short-term (key) refinancing rate: 2.15% (previous: 2.15%)

Inflation:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI), y/y (October): 2.2% (previous: 2.1%)

GDP (Q3):

• q/q: 0.2% (previous: 0.1%)
• y/y: 1.3% (previous: 1.5%)

Unemployment rate (September): 6.3% (previous: 6.3%)

EURO STOXX 600

Weekly performance — -0.61% (week closed at 569.6). Year-to-date performance: +12.66%.

China

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), October:

• Services sector: 50.1 (previous: 50.0)
• Manufacturing sector: 49.0 (previous: 49.8)
• Composite index: 54.8 (previous: 53.9)

Inflation (CPI), October:

• Consumer Price Index (m/m): 0.2% (previous: -0.3%)
• Consumer Price Index (y/y): 0.2% (previous: 0.1%)
• Producer Price Index (PPI, y/y): -2.1% (previous: -2.3%)

CSI 300 Index

Weekly performance — +0.82% (week closed at 4,678.7944). Year-to-date performance: +19.02%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.HK)

Weekly performance — -1.20% (week closed at 5,837.36). Year-to-date performance: +31.57%.

BOND MARKET

Bond Market — Rising Yields Following the Fed Meeting

Treasury Bonds 20+ (ETF TLT): weekly performance — -0.8% (week closed at 89.57). Year-to-date performance: +2.02%.

• Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities, 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.13% (vs 4.10%)
• 2-Year Treasury Yield: 3.61% (vs 3.51%)
• ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.03% (vs 4.97%)

Credit spreads in the corporate sectors of the U.S. and Europe remain at their lowest levels since 1998, signaling continued investor optimism. Market participants are not pricing in a risk premium and do not anticipate a wave of corporate defaults in the real economy.

Yields and Spreads

• Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities, 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.13% (vs 4.10%). 2-Year Treasury Yield: 3.61% (vs 3.51%)
• ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.03% (vs 4.97%)

The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds stands at 54.0 basis points (vs 52.0 bps).

• The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury bonds is 26.0 basis points (vs 15.0 bps).
• The cost of the 5-year U.S. Credit Default Swap (CDS) — insurance against default — is 35.06 bps (vs 35.96 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Gold Futures (GC): weekly performance — -0.14% (week closed at $4,007.8 per troy ounce). Year-to-date performance: +51.75%.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance — -0.13% (week closed at 99.42). Year-to-date performance: -8.22%.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance — -1.71% (week closed at $69.84 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: -16.72%.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance (as of Friday) — -4.59% (week closed at $104,780). Year-to-date performance: +11.76%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance — -7.00% (week closed at $3,585.9).Year-to-date performance: +7.23%.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization: $3.57 trillion (vs $3.70 trillion a week earlier, according to coinmarketcap.com).

Market shares:

• Bitcoin: 59.3% (previous: 59.2%)
• Ethereum: 12.2% (previous: 12.6%)
• Other assets: 28.6% (previous: 28.2%)

Public Companies with Bitcoin Treasury Strategies:

The share of bitcoins held on corporate balance sheets remains unchanged at 5.04% (vs 5.03% last week) of the total circulating bitcoin supply.