April 27 – May 1, 2026: Weekly economic update

Last week, the third FOMC meeting took place, at which the policy rate was, as expected, held unchanged within the 3.50–3.75% range.

Jerome Powell’s rhetoric was moderately hawkish; however, the market’s focus today is on expectations regarding the monetary policy stance of Kevin Warsh, who has passed the Senate vote and is likely to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

At this stage, it remains unclear what policy direction he will pursue. On the one hand, he is considered a protégé of Trump; on the other, during his previous tenure at the Fed, he opposed quantitative easing (QE) programs and low interest rates. It was precisely due to disagreements over policy that he stepped down from the Federal Reserve.

Macroeconomic data. U.S. (key takeaways):

• Rates unchanged; rhetoric remains cautious;
• Monetary policy stance is moderately tight;
• U.S. macro data support a soft-landing scenario: inflation risks are rising, the labor market is cooling without signs of recession, and, for now, does not warrant rate cuts.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MARCH):

• Core CPI: (MoM) 0.2% (prev: 0.2%); (YoY) 2.6% (prev: 2.5%).
• CPI: (MoM) 0.9% (prev: 0.3%); (YoY) 3.3% (prev: 2.4%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (MARCH):

• PPI (m/m): 0.5%, prev: 0.7%.
• Core PPI (m/m): 0.1%, prev: 0.3%:

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (MARCH):

• 12-month inflation expectations: 4.7% (prev: 3.8%);
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.5% (prev: 3.2%).

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q1 2025, annualized, advance estimate): +2.0% (Q4 2025: +0.5%); forecast: 2.2%.

Contributions to real GDP growth in the first quarter came from investment, exports, consumer spending, and government expenditure. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP, also increased.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator (a “real-time” estimate of official GDP prior to its release): 3.7% (previous: 1.2%).

U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (Q1): 4.3% (previous: 2.7%); year-over-year in April: 3.2% (previous: 3.0%).

U.S. headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (Q1, year-over-year): 3.5% (previous: 2.8%).

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI)(APRIL, PRELIMINARY DATA):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector: 51.3 (prev: 49.8);
• Manufacturing sector: 54.0 (prev: 52.3);
• S&P Global Composite: 52.0 (prev: 50.3).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (MARCH)

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% (prev: 4.4%);
• Total number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S.: 1,785K (prev: 1,818K);
• Initial jobless claims: 189K (prev: 215K);
• Change in nonfarm payroll employment: 178K (prev: -133K);
• Change in private nonfarm payroll employment: 186K (prev: -129K);
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.5% (prev: 3.8%);
• JOLTS job openings: 6.542M (prev: 6.928M).

MONETARY POLICY

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
• The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet stands at $6.699 trillion, up 2.51% since the halt of quantitative tightening (QT) ($6.535 trillion).

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

At the next meeting (June 17), the estimated probability of the rate remaining unchanged stands at 94.78%.

Over the next 12 months, the market is not currently pricing in rate cuts and does not anticipate any rate hikes.

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: +0,91% (week-end close at 7230,11); year-to-date: +5,62%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +1,49% (week-end close at 27710,36); year-to-date: +9,74%.

VIX

VIX (volatility index): week closing at 16,98 points.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: +0,93% (week-end close at 2812,822); year-to-date: +13,33%.

Equity indices are rising on the back of strong results from the ongoing earnings season. Big Tech continues to lead in profit growth, while companies are announcing new large-scale buyback programs (the primary driver of S&P 500 growth).

Scale of investment in AI infrastructure by 2030:

This is not an “official report,” but rather a synthesis of scenarios (Goldman Sachs / McKinsey / sell-side).

• Orange — infrastructure (buildings);
• Yellow — IT (GPUs, servers — the most capital-intensive segment);
• Light yellow — energy (power, grid, cooling). In the base-case scenario, investment in AI infrastructure could exceed $5+ trillion by 2030, making this technological cycle historically capital-intensive and surpassing the scale of past industrial cycles.

Eurozone

• Rates remain unchanged for now, but inflation risks are rising;
• The monetary policy stance is neutral, though the balance of risks is skewed toward inflation;
• Amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the ECB has revised its GDP forecasts downward and raised its inflation outlook for the coming years.

Interest Rates

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged but highlighted a simultaneous increase in two risks: accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth.

• Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (previous: 2.0%);
• Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%) (the rate at which banks can borrow overnight from the regulator);
• Short-term (policy) rate: 2.15% (previous: 2.15%).

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (April, preliminary data):

• Core CPI (year-over-year): 2.2% (previous: 2.3%).

CPI (month-over-month): 1.0% (previous: 1.3%).

CPI (year-over-year): 3.0% (previous: 2.6%).

GDP for Q1 (preliminary): quarter-over-quarter: 0.1% (previous: 0.2%, revised); year-over-year: 0.8% (previous: 1.2%).

Unemployment rate (March): 6.3% (previous: 6.2%).

Industrial production (month-over-month) (February): 0.4% (previous: -0.8%). Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (April): in expansion territory, but slowing.

• Services: 47.4 (previous: 50.2);
• Manufacturing: 52.2 (previous: 51.6);
• S&P Global Composite: 48.6 (previous: 50.7).

EURO STOXX 600 (FXXP1!)

Weekly performance: +0,16% (Week-end close: 608,2); Year-to-date: +2,39%.

China

The economy is stabilizing on the back of exports, while domestic demand and investment are gradually recovering; policy stimulus remains targeted and cautious.

• Rates unchanged;
• Monetary policy stance remains accommodative;
• China has reaffirmed continued fiscal support for economic growth במסגרת its 2026 plan (stimulating domestic demand, optimizing tax incentives and subsidies, and modernizing industry).

Interest Rates:

• 1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.00%;
• 5Y Loan Prime Rate (affecting mortgages): 3.50%.

Inflation indicators (March):

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): month-over-month: -0.7% (previous: 1.0%); year-over-year: 1.0% (previous: 1.3%);
• Producer Price Index (PPI) (year-over-year): -0.5% (previous: -0.9%).

GDP for Q1 2026: quarter-over-quarter: 1.3% (previous: 1.2%); year-over-year: 5.0% (previous: 4.5%).

Unemployment rate (March): 5.4% (previous: 5.3%).

Industrial production (March, year-over-year): 6.1% (previous: 6.3%).

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits of Chinese industrial enterprises grew by 15.2% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 (March: 15.8% year-over-year). This growth was achieved despite external headwinds.

• State-owned enterprises: profit growth of 10.1%;
• Private firms (the key driver): growth of 25% year-over-year. Across industries, significant growth was observed in mining support services, as well as in non-ferrous metals and electronics.

Fixed asset investment (March, year-over-year): 1.7% (previous: 1.8%).

Retail sales (March, year-over-year): 0.9% (previous: 1.3%).

Imports (March, year-over-year): 27.8% (previous: 19.8%).

Exports (March, year-over-year): 2.5% (previous: 21.8%).

Trade balance (USD) (March): $51.13 billion (previous: $213.62 billion).

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) (March):

• Manufacturing: 50.3 (previous: 50.4);
• Non-manufacturing: 49.4 (previous: 50.1);
• Composite: 50.1 (previous: 50.5).

CSI 300 INDEX (000300.HK)

Weekly performance: +0,76% (week-end close at 4807,30); Year-to-date: +3,13%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH)

Weekly performance: +1,08% (week-end close: 4954,9); year-to-date: -9,98%.

Moody’s has revised China’s rating outlook to stable from negative, while affirming its A1 rating.

BOND MARKET

U.S. fixed income market — inflation expectations continue to anchor yields.

U.S. Treasuries 20+ (ETF TLT): weekly performance: -1.27% (week close: 85.61); year-to-date: -1.78%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.39% (previous: 4.3%);

2-year Treasury yield: 3.88% (previous: 3.78%);

ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.32% (previous: 5.22%).

• The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury securities stands at 51 basis points (previous: 54).
• The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury securities stands at 73 basis points (previous: 64).

The cost of 5-year U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) (default insurance): 35.04 bps (vs. 34.63 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: -2,03% (week close: $4644,5 per troy ounce); Year-to-date: +7,21%.

From the World Gold Council’s report: gold demand in the first quarter of 2026 increased moderately to 1,231 tonnes. The growth was driven by investment in bars and coins, while purchases via ETFs slowed during the quarter. Central banks continued to buy gold активно. Jewelry demand remained under pressure amid record-high prices.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: -0,16% (week-end close: 98,211)). Year-to-date performance: +0,22%.

The share of the U.S. dollar in international payments (SWIFT):

Since the beginning of 2026, the dollar’s share has exceeded 50% and is currently at local highs.

Despite ongoing discussions about de-dollarization, demand for dollar liquidity remains strong. Global trade continues to be conducted predominantly in USD, particularly in commodities and financial flows.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +7,99% (week-end close: $101,94 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: +77,56.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance: -0,12% (week-end close: $7856); year-to-date: -10,44%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance: -2,02% (week-end close: $2322,3); year-to-date: -21,91%.

Dynamics of large holders (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC):

From February to early April, the balances of large holders declined, indicating a distribution phase. Since April, an accumulation phase has been observed, with balances increasing. Smart money maintains a bullish outlook on the market.

Key market developments

Colombia’s largest pension fund, Porvenir, has begun investing in BTC by purchasing BlackRock’s IBIT spot ETF.

Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that lawmakers plan to introduce amendments to the crypto market structure bill (the CLARITY Act) in May and move toward its adoption in the near term.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott отметил that he expects the bill to be sent to the President for signature this summer.

The White House confirmed plans to publish an official strategy to establish a BTC reserve within the next two months, aiming to use approximately 200,000 BTC seized through law enforcement actions as a national reserve asset.

TOTAL CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Total crypto market capitalization: $2,64 trillion (vs $2,59 trillion a week earlier) (coinmarketcap.com).

Crypto asset market shares:

• Bitcoin: 60.4% (60.0%)
• Ethereum: 10.8% (10.8%)
• Others: 28.8% (29.2%).

ETF Net Flows Chart: