December 22–28, 2025: Weekly economic update

Over the past week, market sentiment remained positive, supported by macroeconomic data. U.S. GDP growth exceeded expectations and reached its highest level in two years at +4.3%, which, in turn, reduced the probability of a 25 bp rate cut in January to 19.4%.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected higher consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure, which were partially offset by a decline in investment. Growth was also supported by easing trade policy tensions and a reduction in tariffs.

The data also indicated an improvement in the labor market. Private-sector employment has been rising for a third consecutive week, averaging 11,500 jobs per week. Initial jobless claims in the United States declined by 10,000.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER):

• Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.6% (prev: 3.0%).
• CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.4%); (y/y) 2.7% (prev: 3.0%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER):

• PPI (m/m): 0.3%, prev: -0.1%.
• Core PPI (m/m): 0.1%, prev: -0.1%.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (DECEMBER):

• 12-month inflation expectations: 4.1%, prev: 4.5%;
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.2%, prev: 3.4%.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (September) (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge):

• (m/m): 0.2%, prev: 0.2%; (y/y): 2.8%, prev: 2.9%. GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q3 2025, annualized, advance estimate): +4.3% (Q2 2025: +3.8%).

GDPNow Indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Q4): 3.9% (prev: 3.5%).

(The GDPNow forecasting model provides a “current” estimate of the official figure prior to its release, estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to that employed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.)

Business Activity Index (PMI) (December):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector: 52.9 (prev: 54.1);
• Manufacturing sector: 51.8 (prev: 52.2);
• S&P Global Composite: 53.0 (prev: 54.2).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (November)

The labor-market data exceeded expectations across several indicators:

• Unemployment rate: 4.6% (prev: 4.4%);
• Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits in the U.S.: 1,923K (prev: 1,885K, revised);
• Initial jobless claims: 214K (prev: 224K);
• Change in nonfarm payrolls: 64K (prev: -105K);
• Change in private nonfarm payrolls: 69K (prev: -52K);
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.5% (prev: 3.7%);
• Number of job openings (JOLTS): — (prev: 7.227M).

MONETARY POLICY

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
• Federal Reserve balance sheet: $6.5568 trillion, +0.33% since the suspension of QT ($6.535 trillion).

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

For the next meeting (January 28): the implied probability of a 0.25% rate cut stands at 19.4%.

Over the next 12 months: two 0.25% rate cuts, bringing the target range to 3.00%–3.25%.

Today:

А week earlier:

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: +1.35% for the week (week-end close: 6,929.95) and +17.34% year-to-date in 2025. On Friday, the index reached a new all-time high at 6,945 points.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +1.18% (week-end close: 25,644.39). Year-to-date return: +21.42%.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: +0.19% (week-end close: 2,534.34). Year-to-date: +13.08%.

VIX

VIX (volatility index) fell to its lowest level this year, ending the week at 13.61 points. There is no fear in the market today.

Eurozone

Interest Rates:

• Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (prev: 2.0%);
• Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (prev: 2.4%) (the rate at which banks can borrow overnight from the central bank);
• Short-term (key) policy rate: 2.15% (prev: 2.15%).

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (November):

• Core CPI (y/y): 2.4% (prev: 2.4%);
• CPI: (m/m) -0.3% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.1% (prev: 2.2%).

GDP (Q3, final):

• q/q: 0.3% (prev: 0.1%);
• y/y: 1.4% (prev: 1.5%).

Unemployment rate (October): 6.4% (prev: 6.3%).

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (December):

• Services sector: 52.6 (prev: 53.6);
• Manufacturing sector: 49.2 (prev: 49.6);
• S&P Global Composite: 51.9 (prev: 52.8).

EURO STOXX 600

After the holidays, the Euro Stoxx 600 opened at an all-time high of 592 points. Weekly performance: +1.06%(week-end close: 589.5). Year-to-date return: +16.59%.

China

Interest Rates:

• 1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.50%;
• 5Y Rate (five-year rate, affecting mortgages): 3.50%.

Inflation indicators (October):

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): (m/m) -0.1% *(prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 0.7% (prev: 0.2%);
• Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y): -2.2% (prev: -2.1%).
• Unemployment rate (November): 5.1% (prev: 5.1%).
• Industrial production (November) (y/y): 4.8% (prev: 4.9%).
• Fixed asset investment (November) (y/y): -2.6% (prev: -1.7%).
• Retail sales (November) (y/y): 1.3% (prev: 2.9%).

Trade:

• Imports (December) (y/y): 1.9% (prev: 1.0%);
• Exports (December) (y/y): 5.9% (prev: -1.1%).
• Trade balance (USD) (December): USD 111.68 billion (prev: USD 90.7 billion).

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) (November):

• Manufacturing sector: 49.2 (prev: 49.0);
• Non-manufacturing sector: 49.0 (prev: 49.0);
• Composite index: 49.5 (prev: 50.1).

CSI 300 INDEX

Weekly performance: +1.95% (week-end close: 4,657.24). year-to-date growth: +18.47%.

###HANG SENG TECH INDEX (HSTECH.HK) Weekly performance: +1.95% (week-end close: 4,657.24). Year-to-date growth: +18.47%.

BOND MARKET – consolidating within a range

U.S. Treasury bonds 20+ (ETF TLT): +0.22% for the week (week-end close: 87.74). 2025 performance: -0.07%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

• Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.14% (prev: 4.17%); 2-year Treasury yield: 3.49% (prev: 3.63%);
• ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.01% (prev: 5.00%);
• Yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries: 65 basis points (prev: 68 bps);
• Yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries: 50 basis points (prev: 54 bps).

Cost of the 5-year U.S. credit default swap (CDS) (default insurance): 26.99 bps (vs. 26.99 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: +4.42% (week-end close: $4,562.0 per troy ounce). Year-to-date gain: +72.74%.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: -0.66%; week-end close: 97.735. 2025 performance: -9.78%.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +0.69%, week-end close: $56.93 per barrel.. Year-to-date performance: -20.77%.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance: -0.80%, week-end close: $88,031.00. Year-to-date performance: -6.13%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance: -1,71% (weekly close: $2953,3). Year-to-date performance: -11,69%.

Total crypto market capitalization: $2.98T (vs. $3.02T a week earlier) (coinmarketcap.com).

Crypto market shares:

• Bitcoin: 58.9% (59.1%);
• Ethereum: 12.0% (12.1%);
• others: 29.0% (28.8%).

Public companies with Bitcoin treasury strategies. The share of bitcoins held on corporate balance sheets relative to the total Bitcoin supply stands at 1.76%, compared with last week.

ETF Net Flows Chart: