2026 m. vasario 23 d.

February 16 – 22, 2026: Weekly economic update

Key market updates

Over the past week, stock indices traded within a range, with a slight recovery.

The Fed’s inflation benchmark (personal consumption expenditures) increased from 2.6% to 3.0% since January of this year. U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter declined to 1.4% following growth of 4.4% in the third quarter. This presents a mixed picture for the further trajectory of rates amid a sharp rise in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate.

Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr indicated that policy may remain restrictive for an extended period.

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump’s global tariff policy, stating that the president had exceeded his authority. The justices did not address the extent to which importers are entitled to compensation, leaving these issues to the lower court. The total amount of compensation may reach up to $170 billion.

Trump, in turn, stated (without specifying a date) that the global tariff would be increased from 10% to 15%, with a transition to the application of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the imposition of duties for 150 days without legislative approval.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: tariffs imposed under IEEPA will be replaced within 3 days by tariffs under Section 122.

Chair of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee, Bernd Lange, proposed suspending ratification of the EU–U.S. trade agreement pending clarity on the Trump administration's trade policy.

The United States accepted Iran’s proposals to retain uranium enrichment.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY):

Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.6% (prev: 2.6%).
CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.7% (prev: 2.7%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY):

PPI (m/m): 0.5%, prev: 0.2%.
Core PPI (m/m): 0.7%, prev: 0.3%.

THE FED’S INFLATION BENCHMARK

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (y/y): 3.0% (prev: 2.8%):

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (y/y): 2.9% (prev: 2.8%):

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (FEBRUARY):

12-month inflation expectations: 3.4%, prev: 4.0%.
5-year inflation expectations: 3.3%, prev: 3.3%.

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q4 25, annualized, second estimate): +1.4% (Q3 25: +4.4%)

The increase in consumer spending and investment contributed to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter. These changes were partially offset by a decline in government spending and exports. Imports, which are deducted from GDP, decreased.

Compared with the third quarter, the fourth-quarter slowdown in real GDP growth reflected declines in government spending and exports, as well as a deceleration in consumer spending, which were partially offset by an acceleration in investment. The decline in imports was less pronounced than in the previous quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow indicator (“current” estimate of the official figure prior to its release): 3.0% (prev: 3.7%).

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY)

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

Services sector: 52.3 (prev: 52.7);
Manufacturing sector: 51.2 (prev: 52.4);
S&P Global Composite: 52.3 (prev: 53.0).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (FEBRUARY)

Unemployment rate: 4.3% (prev: 4.4%);
Total number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S.: 1,869K (prev: 1,819K);
Initial jobless claims: 206K (prev: 231K, revised);
Change in nonfarm payroll employment: 130K (prev: 48K);
Change in private nonfarm payroll employment: 172K (prev: −64K);
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.7% (prev: 3.8%);
JOLTS job openings: 6.542M (prev: 6.928M).

MONETARY POLICY

Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: $6.613T, up 1.19% since the suspension of quantitative tightening (QT) ($6.535 trillion).

Next FOMC meeting (March 18): the implied probability of a 25 bps rate cut stands at 4.1%.

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

Over the next 12 months, two rate cuts of 0.25% each to a range of 3.00–3.25%. The market has shifted the first move to July.

Today:

A week earlier:

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: +1,07% (week-end close at 6909,52); year-to-date: 0,94%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +1,13% (week-end close at 25012,62); year-to-date: -0,94%.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: -0,49% (week-end close at 2663,78); year-to-date: 6,12%.

VIX

The VIX volatility index is 20,52.

Earnings Reports (sample: February 16–22, 2026).

Overall, technology companies continue to publish strong results. Gold mining companies reported figures below forecasts. Mining companies exceeded revenue expectations but missed EPS targets. Other sectors are showing mixed dynamics, though without pronounced negativity.

Eurozone

The rate remains unchanged, inflation is under control;
The monetary policy regime is neutral — the balance of risks has shifted from inflation toward economic weakness;
As trade tensions ease, the ECB has revised its GDP and inflation forecasts upward for the coming years;
Europe is stabilizing, but lags behind the U.S. in terms of growth momentum.

Interest Rates

Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (previous: 2.0%).
Marginal lending facility: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%) — the overnight rate at which banks can borrow from the ECB.
Main refinancing rate (policy rate): 2.15% (previous: 2.15%).

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (January):

Core CPI (y/y): 2.2% (previous: 2.3%).
Headline CPI (m/m): –0.5% (previous: 0.2%, revised).
Headline CPI (y/y): 1.7% (previous: 2.0%).

ECB Communication

Fourth-quarter GDP (final reading):

q/q: 0.3% (previous: 0.3%).
y/y: 1.3% (previous: 1.4%).

Unemployment rate (December): 6.20% (previous: 6.23%).

Purchasing Managers’ Index (February)

Services PMI: 51.8 (previous: 51.6).
Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 (previous: 49.4).
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9 (previous: 51.3).

EURO STOXX 600 (FXXP1!)

Weekly performance: +1,78% (Week-end close: 628,6); January performance: +5,82%.

China

The economy is stabilizing on the back of exports, while domestic demand and investment remain weak; stimulus measures are targeted and cautious.

Rates remain unchanged;
The monetary policy regime is accommodative;
China has announced the continuation of fiscal support for economic growth under its 2026 plan (stimulating domestic demand, optimizing tax incentives and subsidies, and industrial modernization).

Interest Rates

1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending benchmark): 3.00%.
5Y Loan Prime Rate (five-year benchmark, influencing mortgage pricing): 3.50%.

Inflation (January)

Consumer Price Index (CPI):
m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%).
y/y: 0.2% (previous: 0.8%).
Producer Price Index (PPI), y/y: –1.4% (previous: –1.9%).

Economic Indicators

GDP for Q4 (final): q/q: 1.2% (prev: 1.1%); y/y: 4.5% (prev: 4.8%)
Unemployment rate (January): 5.1% (prev: 5.1%)
Industrial production (January), (y/y): 5.9% (prev: 4.8%)
Fixed asset investment (January), (y/y): -3.8% (prev: -2.6%)
Retail sales (January), (y/y): 0.9% (prev: 1.3%)
Import volume (Jan), (y/y): 5.7% (prev: 1.9%)
Export volume (Jan), (y/y): 6.6% (prev: 5.9%)
Trade balance (USD) (January): 114.30 bn (prev: 111.68 bn)

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) (January):

Manufacturing sector: 49.3 (prev: 49.2);
Non-manufacturing sector: 49.4 (prev: 49.0);
Composite index: 50.7 (prev: 49.1).

CSI 300 INDEX (000300.HK)

Weekly performance: 0,00% (week-end close at 4660,40); year-to-date: 0,66%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HTI1!)

Weekly performance: +0,47% (week-end close: 5385,35); year-to-date: -2,16%.

BOND MARKET

The U.S. debt market does not indicate a deep recession or systemic risk.

U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bonds (ETF: TLT):
Weekly performance: -0.35% (week-end close: 89.41).
Year-to-date performance: +2.58%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.09% (prev: 4.21%);

Yield on 2-year Treasuries: 3.48% (prev: 3.50%);
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield: % (prev: 4.94%).
The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 61 basis points (prev: 65);
The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries stands at 40 basis points (prev: 38).

The cost of the 5-year U.S. Credit Default Swap (CDS) (default insurance): 31.03 bps (vs 31.02 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance +2,05% (week-end close: $5149,5 per troy ounce); year-to-date: +18,87%.

The rise in gold prices persists amid sustained central bank demand and rapid global debt growth, against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Growth drivers:

Geopolitical risks and Trump’s volatile policy;
Active purchases by central banks and gold-backed ETFs;

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +4.37% (week-end close: $65.64 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: +14.34%.

Key Drivers:

Forecasts of increasing oil supply on the market remain in place;
OPEC+ plans to suspend further supply increases;
Geopolitical risks in Iran are heightening concerns over supply.

Oil has risen by 18% since the beginning of the year, with the price of the light crude futures contract standing at $65. The triggers were the announcement of a sharp production cut by OPEC in January, though to a greater extent, the increase was driven by rising geopolitical tensions amid U.S. pressure on Iran.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: 0.76% (week-end close: 97.554). Year-to-date performance: –0.45%.

Following its decline at the end of 2025, the dollar is trading within the 96–99 range; expectations of a more neutral Fed policy are limiting the potential for appreciation, but are not generating sustained pressure on the USD.