February 23 – 28, 2026: Weekly economic update

The military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran remains in focus. However, more countries have become drawn into the conflict. Trump stated that he is open to initiating negotiations, while Iranian representatives are, for now, категорически opposed to negotiations. Stock indices opened lower. In the United States, producer price inflation (PPI) is rising sharply. In the Eurozone, the decline in consumer inflation (CPI) continues. At Monday’s opening, oil and gold prices rose sharply. Cryptocurrencies reacted neutrally.

The United States (key points)

• The rate remains unchanged, with rhetoric cautious;
• The monetary policy stance is moderately restrictive → transitioning toward neutral;
• The Federal Reserve is maintaining balance: supporting markets while not signaling rapid rate cuts;
• U.S. macroeconomic data confirm a soft-landing scenario: economic growth remains above potential, inflation is slowing, and the labor market is cooling without signs of recession.

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY):

• Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.6% (prev: 2.6%).
• CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.7% (prev: 2.7%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY):

• PPI (m/m): 0.5%, prev: 0.2%.
• Core PPI (m/m): 0.7%, prev: 0.0% (revised):

In scale, this represents one of the strongest monthly increases over the past year, following the spikes of 2021–2022. Producer inflation has historically been a leading indicator of inflation, but it is still too early to say this marks the beginning of a new inflationary trend. The market views this as volatility. Consumer inflation indices, consumer spending, and inflation expectations are generally declining, and amid rising PPI, their upcoming releases will be in focus.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (FEBRUARY):

• 12-month inflation expectations: 3.4%, prev: 4.0%.
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.3%, prev: 3.3%.

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q4 25, annualized, second estimate): +4.4% (2Q25: +3.8%)

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow indicator (“current” estimate of the official figure prior to its release): 3.1% (prev: 3.0%).

Chicago Business Activity Index (PMI), United States: 54.0 (prior: 42.7):

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector: 52.3 (prev: 52.7);
• Manufacturing sector: 51.2 (prev: 52.4);
• S&P Global Composite: 52.3 (prev: 53.0).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (FEBRUARY)

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% (prev: 4.4%);
• Total number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S.: 1,833K (prev: 1,869K);
• Initial jobless claims: 212K (prev: 208K, revised);
• Change in nonfarm payroll employment: 130K (prev: 48K);
• Change in private nonfarm payroll employment: 172K (prev: −64K);
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.7% (prev: 3.8%);
• JOLTS job openings: 6.542M (prev: 6.928M).

MONETARY POLICY

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: $6.613T, up 1.19% since the suspension of quantitative tightening (QT) ($6.535 trillion).

FRED: Overnight Repurchase Agreements (Temporary Open Market Operations) — the Federal Reserve’s purchases of Treasury securities through repo operations:

At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, sharp, frequent spikes in repo volumes (up to $ 30 billion) are observed. This means the Federal Reserve periodically provides short-term liquidity to the market through repo operations. In simple terms, a repo is when the Federal Reserve:

• purchases Treasury securities from banks,
• provides them with cash,
• And after a short period, the securities are returned. This is a temporary liquidity injection, not full-scale quantitative easing (QE). The increase in repo operations volumes indicates periodic episodes of stress in the money market, which the Federal Reserve smooths out with temporary liquidity injections. This is technical in nature and, for now, does not imply a change in the underlying monetary policy stance.

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

At the next meeting (March 18): the estimated probability of a 0.25% rate cut stands at 4.28%:

Over the next 12 months: two 0.25% rate cuts to a range of 3.00–3.25%. The first step is expected at the July meeting:

Today:

А week earlier:

SP500

Weekly performance: -0,44% (week-end close at 6878,89); year-to-date: +0,49%. Today at the open: -1.43%

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: 0,21% (week-end close at 24960,04); year-to-date: -1,15%.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: -1,18% (week-end close at 2632,36); year-to-date: +6,06%.

VIX

The VIX volatility index is 24,25.

Earnings reports (sample: February 23–28, 2026):

The technology sector continues to demonstrate resilient revenue growth, exceeding market expectations and confirming sustained strong demand for IT solutions and infrastructure. Defense companies also delivered earnings outperformance, reflecting a stable order backlog and continued budget-driven demand. The energy sector, despite a period of lower oil prices earlier, is demonstrating strong financial results and margin resilience. S&P Global estimates the probability of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months at 20–25%, down from 30% in September, suggesting a moderate improvement in macroeconomic expectations.

Eurozone

• The rate remains unchanged, with inflation under control;
• The monetary policy stance is neutral — the balance of risks has shifted from inflation toward economic weakness;
• As trade tensions ease, the ECB has revised its GDP and inflation forecasts upward for the coming years;
• Europe is stabilizing but lags the United States in growth momentum.

Interest rates:

• Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (prior: 2.0%);
• Marginal lending rate: 2.4% (prior: 2.4%) (the rate at which banks can obtain overnight credit from the regulator);
• Short-term (key) rate: 2.15% (prior: 2.15%):

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (January) — there is currently no inflation problem in the Eurozone. Core CPI (y/y): 2.2% (prior: 2.3%):

CPI (m/m): -0.6% (prior: 0.2%, revised); CPI (y/y): 1.7% (prior: 1.7%)

GDP for Q4 (final): q/q: 0.3% (prior: 0.3%); y/y: 1.3% (prior: 1.4%). Unemployment rate (December): 6.20% (prior: 6.23%).

Business Activity Index (PMI) (February):

• Services sector: 51.8 (prior: 51.6);
• Manufacturing sector: 50.8 (prior: 49.4);
• S&P Global Composite: 51.9 (prior: 51.3).

EURO STOXX 600 (FXXP1!)

Weekly performance: +0,89% (Week-end close: 634,2); January performance: +6,77%. Today at the open: -1.64%

China

The economy is stabilizing on the back of exports, while domestic demand and investment remain weak; stimulus measures are targeted and cautious.

• Rates remain unchanged;
• The monetary policy stance is accommodative;
• China announced the continuation of fiscal support for economic growth under its 2026 plan (stimulating domestic demand, optimizing tax incentives and subsidies, and modernizing industry).

Interest rates:

• 1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.00%;
• 5Y Rate (five-year rate, influencing mortgages): 3.50%.

Inflation indicators (January):

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m): 0.2% (prior: 0.2%); (y/y): 0.2% (prior: 0.8%);

• Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y): -1.4% (prior: -1.9%).

• GDP for Q4 (final): q/q: 1.2% (prior: 1.1%); y/y: 4.5% (prior: 4.8%).

• Unemployment rate (January): 5.1% (prior: 5.1%).

• Industrial production (January), (y/y): 5.9% (prior: 4.8%).

• Fixed asset investment (January), (y/y): -3.8% (prior: -2.6%).

• Retail sales (January), (y/y): 0.9% (prior: 1.3%).

• Import volume (January), (y/y): 5.7% (prior: 1.9%).

• Export volume (January), (y/y): 6.6% (prior: 5.9%).

• Trade balance (USD) (January): $114.30 billion (prior: $111.68 billion).

Business Activity Indices (PMI) (January):

• Manufacturing sector: 49.3 (prior: 49.2);
• Non-manufacturing sector: 49.4 (prior: 49.0);
• Composite index: 50.7 (prior: 49.1).

CSI 300 INDEX (000300.HK)

Weekly performance: +1,46% (week-end close at 4728,67); year-to-date: +2,13%.

The Chinese technology sector continues to decline: key constituents of the Hang Seng TECH Index have reported weaker results compared with their Western counterparts.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH)

Weekly performance: -4,60% (week-end close: 513,84); year-to-date: -6,67%.

BOND MARKET

The U.S. debt market does not point to a scenario of a deep recession or systemic risk. U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (ETF TLT): Weekly performance: +1.58% (week close: 90.82); Year-to-date: +4.20%.

Auction of U.S. 5-year Treasury notes: 3.615% (beginning of the year: 4.478%):

Auction of U.S. 7-year Treasury notes: 3.790% (beginning of the year: 4.532%):

Although the Federal Reserve kept the rate unchanged at its January meeting, the auction charts for medium-term U.S. Treasuries show a steady downward trend in yields since the beginning of this year, following the peaks of 2023–2024. This reflects the fact that investors are not pricing in sustained inflationary pressures.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 3.98% (prior: 4.09%); Yield on 2-year Treasuries: 3.40% (prior: 3.48%);

• ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield: 4.91% (prior: 4.94%).

• The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 58 basis points (prior: 61);

• The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries stands at 32 basis points (prior: 40).

• The cost of a 5-year U.S. credit default swap (CDS) (default insurance): 31.03 bps (vs. 31.03 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Gold futures, amid geopolitical developments, are once again approaching historical highs. Weekly performance: +1.91% (week close: $5,247.7 per troy ounce); year-to-date: +21.14%. The rise in gold prices persists amid sustained demand from central banks, rapid global debt growth, and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +2.10% (week-end close: $67,02 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: +16.74%. Today: +8.87%, with the intraday peak reaching $75 per barrel. OPEC+ announced an increase in supply of 206 million barrels per day (0.2% of global supply); Geopolitical risks in the Middle East region.

Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–21 million barrels of oil pass daily, accounting for approximately 20% of global oil supply. Wall Street analysts expect Brent crude to rise to $90 if physical supply disruptions reach 5 million barrels per day. OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production of 206 thousand barrels per day. A broader conflict in the Middle East could intensify global inflation and market volatility.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: +0.09% (week-end close: 97,646). Year-to-date performance: –0.36%. Today +0,75%. Following its decline at the end of 2025, the dollar is trading in the 96–99 range; expectations of a more neutral Federal Reserve policy are limiting the upside potential but are not creating sustained downward pressure on the USD.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance +0,38% (week-end close: $65864); year-to-date: -24,92%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance +3,23% (week-end close: $1939,3); year-to-date: -34,79%.

Changes in Bitcoin's ownership structure in 2025. A clear inflow from the institutional segment is being observed. Bitcoin is shifting from retail investors toward institutional and corporate participants. Historically, such a process has accompanied phases of market maturation, when an asset gradually transitions from early private holders to larger, more systemic participants:

ETH: Inflows into Accumulation Addresses (CryptoQuant) — inflows of Ether into accumulation addresses.

The blue bars represent the volume of ETH flowing into addresses that historically do not spend their coins (accumulation addresses). In the highlighted area (late 2025 – early 2026), a sharp spike in inflows is observed — one of the highest over the entire observation period. This indicates that large holders are accumulating ETH rather than transferring it to exchanges. Coins are being moved into “cold” storage, thereby reducing the liquid supply. The behavior resembles strategic accumulation rather than speculative overheating. Historically, such spikes have often appeared either during the formation phase of a medium-term bottom or at an early stage of a new upward impulse. In 2021, reserves were more “diversified.” By 2025, USDT and USDC had become almost fully backed by U.S. Treasuries and repo agreements. The share of corporate bonds and other assets has been sharply reduced. This means that stablecoins have effectively become quasi–money market funds. Their growth equals increased demand for T-bills. The crypto ecosystem is becoming increasingly interconnected with the U.S. short-term government debt market.

ProShares has launched a new money market ETF focused on stablecoins. ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (ticker: IQMM US) — $17.56 billion on its first trading day, reflecting strong institutional interest in instruments linked to dollar-denominated on-chain liquidity. Investors gain regulated exposure to stablecoins.

TOTAL CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: $2,28T(vs. $2.35T a week earlier) (coinmarketcap.com).

Crypto asset shares

• Bitcoin: 58,1% (58,2%);
• Ethereum: 10,3% (10,1%);
• others: 37.1% (31.7%).

ETF Net Flows Chart: