March 9 – 15, 2026: Weekly economic update

Consumer inflation in the United States in February remained unchanged year-on-year compared to previous readings. The core index increased by 2.5%, while headline inflation stood at 2.4%. Recent developments, therefore, had no impact on this release. GDP data showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy. Growth in the fourth quarter amounted to only 0.7%, compared with 4.4% in the third quarter. Declines were recorded across all key components, including exports, consumer spending, government expenditure, and investment. Against this backdrop, the market has lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts (FedWatch). Only one rate cut of 0.25% is now anticipated, bringing the range to 3.25–3.50%, and only at the December meeting. The focus now shifts to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where Powell is expected to outline the regulator’s future policy direction. In the Eurozone, the rhetoric of ECB representatives is shifting toward maintaining rates at current levels for a longer period, with no indications of increases for now. However, interest rate markets are already pricing in the possibility that the ECB’s next move could be a rate hike. In China, macroeconomic data have been relatively positive, indicating that the economy is recovering. Domestic demand, measured by the CPI on a year-on-year basis, rose by 1.3%, marking the strongest reading since April 2023. Import volumes — a key indicator of domestic demand — tripled in February to 19.8% (previous: 5.7%). Deflation in the producer price index is slowing and approaching neutral levels. Trade data also showed strong growth: export volumes in February rose from 6.6% year-on-year to 21.8%. The trade surplus surged sharply to $213.6 billion. Tensions persist in the oil market, with no meaningful progress toward negotiations so far; rhetoric from both sides remains aggressive. The White House stated that there is no clear plan to ensure the security of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has called on NATO and all interested countries to address the issue. There has been little optimism in response, as few are willing to be drawn into the conflict. Yields in debt markets have been rising since the conflict began. Gold is declining, while major cryptocurrencies are showing strong growth.

Macroeconomic Statistics. United States (Key Takeaways)

• Interest rates remain unchanged; the rhetoric remains cautious.
• The monetary policy stance remains moderately restrictive, gradually moving toward neutral.
• The Federal Reserve continues to balance its approach: supporting markets while avoiding signals of rapid rate cuts.
• U.S. GDP data indicate a significant slowdown in economic activity.

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY):

Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.5% (prev: 2.5%).

CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.4% (prev: 2.4%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (JANUARY):

PPI (m/m): 0.5%, prev: 0.2%. Core PPI (m/m): 0.7%, prev: 0.0% (revised):

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (FEBRUARY):

• 12-month inflation expectations: 3.4%, prev: 4.0%.
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.3%, prev: 3.3%.

U.S. GDP Deflator (QoQ): 3.8% (previous: 3.7%) U.S. GDP (Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) — Q4 2025, annualized (second estimate): +0.7% (Q3 2025: +4.4%).

The second estimate reflects declines in exports, consumer spending, government expenditures, and investment. Imports decreased by less than previously anticipated.

Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow Indicator (the “real-time” estimate of official GDP before its release): 2.7% (previous: 2.1%).

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector: 51.7 (prev: 52.7);
• Manufacturing sector: 51.2 (prev: 52.4);
• S&P Global Composite: 51.9 (prev: 53.0).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (FEBRUARY)

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% (prev: 4.4%);
• Total number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S.: 1,850K (prev: 1,871K);
• Initial jobless claims: 213K (prev: 214K);
• Change in nonfarm payroll employment: 130K (prev: 48K);
• Change in private nonfarm payroll employment: 172K (prev: −64K);
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.7% (prev: 3.8%);
• JOLTS job openings: 6.542M (prev: 6.928M).

MONETARY POLICY

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
• Federal Reserve balance sheet: $6.646 trillion, +1.70% since the suspension of QT ($6.535 trillion).

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

For the upcoming meeting (March 18), the estimated probability that the rate will remain unchanged is 99.21%.

Over the next 12 months, the market expects one 0.25% rate cut, bringing the range to 3.25–3.50%, as anticipated at the December meeting.

Today:

A week earlier:

Goldman Sachs Interest Rate Forecast

Goldman Sachs outlines several scenarios for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate trajectory. The base case assumes that the first rate cut will occur in September 2026, followed by another in December 2026, after which the rate is expected to stabilize within the 3.0–3.25% range. Trump has urged Powell to cut rates immediately rather than wait for the next FOMC meeting. Investors are now focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting. On the one hand, fourth-quarter GDP data increases the likelihood that the rate-cutting cycle will continue. On the other hand, inflation has not yet reached the target, and if inflation proves more persistent, rates could remain at current levels for longer.

SP500

Weekly performance: –1.20% (week-end close at 6632,20); year-to-date: -3,12%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: -1,06% (week-end close at 24380,73); year-to-date: -3,44%.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: -1,79% (week-end close at 2480,0507); year-to-date: -0,07%.

VIX

VIX (Volatility Index): remains elevated at 27.19.

Eurozone

• Interest rates remain unchanged, but inflation risks are rising.
• The monetary policy stance is neutral, with the balance of risks shifting from inflation toward economic weakness.
• As trade tensions ease, the ECB has revised its GDP and inflation forecasts upward for the coming years.
• Europe is stabilizing but continues to lag the United States in growth rates.

Interest Rates

• Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (previous: 2.0%)
• Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (previous: 2.4%) — the rate at which banks can obtain overnight loans from the regulator
• Main refinancing (policy) rate: 2.15% (previous: 2.15%)

Inflation — Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February)

• Core CPI (YoY): 2.4% (previous: 2.2%)
• CPI (MoM): 0.7% (previous: -0.6%, revised)
• CPI (YoY): 1.9% (previous: 1.7%, revised)

GDP for Q4 (final estimate)

• QoQ: 0.3% (previous: 0.3%)
• YoY: 1.3% (previous: 1.4%)

Unemployment Rate (February)

• 6.10% (previous: 6.20%)

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (February)

• Services sector: 51.9 (previous: 51.8)
• Manufacturing sector: 49.5 (previous: 49.4)
• S&P Global Composite: 51.9 (previous: 51.9)

EURO STOXX 600 (FXXP1!)

Weekly performance: -0,23% (Week-end close: 595,7); Year-to-date: +0,29%.

China

The economy is stabilizing, supported by strong exports, while domestic demand is beginning to recover. Stimulus measures remain targeted and cautious.

• Interest rates remain unchanged.
• The monetary policy stance remains accommodative.
• China has confirmed the continuation of fiscal support for economic growth within its 2026 policy framework, including measures to stimulate domestic demand, optimize tax incentives and subsidies, and modernize industry.

Interest Rates

• 1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.00%
• 5Y Loan Prime Rate (five-year rate influencing mortgage lending): 3.50%

Inflation Indicators (February)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• MoM: 0.1% (previous: 0.2%)
• YoY: 1.3% (previous: 0.2%)

Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY): -0.9% (previous: -1.4%).

GDP for Q4 (final estimate):

• QoQ: 1.2% (previous: 1.1%)
• YoY: 4.5% (previous: 4.8%)

Economic Indicators

• Unemployment Rate (January): 5.1% (previous: 5.1%)
• Industrial Production (January, YoY): 5.9% (previous: 4.8%)
• Fixed Asset Investment (January, YoY): -3.8% (previous: -2.6%)
• Retail Sales (January, YoY): 0.9% (previous: 1.3%)
• Import Volume (February, YoY): 19.8% (previous: 5.7%)
• Export Volume (February, YoY): 21.8% (previous: 6.6%)
• Trade Balance (USD, February): $213.62 billion (previous: $114.11 billion).

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (February):

• Manufacturing sector: 49.0 (previous: 49.3)
• Non-manufacturing sector: 49.5 (previous: 49.4)
• Composite PMI: 49.5 (previous: 49.8)

CSI 300 INDEX (000300.HK)

Weekly performance: +0,19 % (week-end close at 4669,14); year-to-date: +0,85%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH)

Weekly performance: +0,62% (week-end close: 4978,08); year-to-date: -9,56%.

BOND MARKET

Since the beginning of the conflict, yields have been rising across the entire curve, particularly at the long end, indicating an increase in inflation expectations.

U.S. Treasury Bonds 20+ (ETF TLT):

• Weekly performance: -2.17% (weekly close: 86.54)
• Year-to-date: -0.71%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.26% (previous: 4.12%); 2-Year Treasury Yield: 3.70% (previous: 3.57%)

• ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.28% (previous: 5.09%).

• The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury securities stands at 56 basis points (previous: 55).
• The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury securities stands at 55 basis points (previous: 43).

U.S. 5-Year Credit Default Swap (CDS) — the cost of insuring against a U.S. sovereign default — stands at 35.99 bps (vs 33.30 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: -1,88% (week close: $5061,7 per troy ounce); year-to-date: +16,84.

The chart illustrates the dynamics of gold prices before and after the onset of major military conflicts in the Middle East involving oil-exporting countries.

The X-axis shows the number of days before and after the start of a military operation. 0 marks the beginning of the conflict; negative values represent the days leading up to the conflict, while positive values indicate the days following it. The Y-axis represents the gold price index, where 100 corresponds to the price on the day the conflict began.

The lines represent different historical conflicts:

• Iran–Iraq War (1980)
• Gulf War (1990)
• Iraq War (2003)
• Libya Intervention (2011)

Following the outbreak of hostilities, the market reaction was mixed: in two cases, gold prices continued to rise, while in the other two, they stabilized or declined. Markets often price in a geopolitical risk premium in advance. As a result, a sharp increase in gold prices does not necessarily occur immediately after a conflict begins — a pattern that can also be observed today, suggesting that geopolitical risk may already be reflected in current prices.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +8,59% (week-end close: $98,71 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: +71,94%. Oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel.

• OPEC+ has announced an increase in supply of 201 thousand barrels per day (approximately 0.2% of global supply).
• IEA member countries have indicated their readiness to release strategic reserves if necessary.
• Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated.

Bloomberg forecasts that oil prices could rise above $160 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for three months. Bank of America expects a more moderate scenario: the average Brent oil price by the end of 2026 is projected to be around $77 per barrel. A decline following the current price surge is expected to begin in the second half of the year. By 2027, the average price could fall to approximately $65 per barrel.

IEA: tanker freight rates for passage through the Strait of Hormuz have increased by 600%. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have reduced oil production by 6.7 million barrels per day — about 6% of global oil supply and roughly one-third of their combined production. Restoring production to previous levels could therefore take several months. Gulf states have warned of “catastrophic consequences” if disruptions to energy flows are not resolved quickly. The IEA plans to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, which could temporarily help offset the supply deficit.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: +1,66% (week-end close: 100,494). Year-to-date performance: +2,55%.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance +10,39% (week-end close: $72831); year-to-date: -16,97%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance +12,44% (week-end close: $2178,5); year-to-date: -26,75%.

The Bitcoin Regime Score chart illustrates changes in BTC's market regime — transitions between bullish and bearish phases.

The indicator is an aggregated metric that combines several market indicators:

• Taker imbalance (aggressive buying vs. selling);
• Funding rates and open interest;
• Flows to exchanges and ETFs;
• Price trend and market momentum.

When the indicator is above zero, the market is in a bullish momentum phase, reflecting rising demand and stronger risk appetite. When it is below zero, a bearish regime dominates, typically accompanied by distribution, declining liquidity, and price corrections.

The Bitcoin Regime Score currently indicates a gradual recovery in BTC’s market structure following the deep bearish phase observed in early 2026. Today, the index values are returning to the neutral zone, suggesting market stabilization and the end of the distribution phase.

The Bitcoin Price vs. Net Institutional Demand chart compares the BTC price with net institutional demand.

The green line represents Bitcoin's price. The dark line represents Net Institutional Demand.

This metric is calculated as: ETF purchases plus corporate treasury purchases minus newly issued BTC (mining supply).

The right axis shows the monthly change in demand measured in BTC.

Thus, the indicator shows whether institutional capital is absorbing newly issued Bitcoin supply or whether distribution of coins is taking place instead.

Over the past year, a strong correlation has emerged between Bitcoin's price and institutional demand. In recent weeks, institutional demand has begun to recover, suggesting renewed interest from large investors.

Crypto market news:

A Tennessee state bill establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve has been recommended for approval and forwarded to the Finance, Ways, and Means Committee. If adopted, the legislation would allow the state treasurer to allocate up to 10% of state funds into Bitcoin.

As for the Clarity Act, it has not yet reached consensus among lawmakers due to opposition from banking-sector representatives. However, Trump is increasingly calling for its swift adoption.

TOTAL CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Total crypto market capitalization: $2.51 trillion (vs $2.4 trillion a week earlier) (coinmarketcap.com).

Crypto asset market shares:

• Bitcoin: 58.5% (58.8%)
• Ethereum: 10.9% (10.4%)
• Others: 30.5% (30.8%)

ETF Net Flows Chart: