2025 ж. 24 қараша

November 17–23, 2025: Weekly economic update

Key market updates

Last week, equity markets saw a decline in risk appetite, though by Friday sentiment had shifted and indices moved higher. Investors responded constructively to comments from New York Fed President Dudley Williams, who indicated that a near-term rate cut remains a viable possibility.

Market optimism was further reinforced by solid macroeconomic data and reports that U.S. authorities are negotiating the approval of Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China — a development that could reduce trade-related uncertainty and support sentiment across the AI sector. Inflation expectations eased in November, falling to 4.5% on the 12-month horizon and to 3.4% on the 5-year horizon. Labor-market data also came in stronger than expected, with employment rising across the non-farm sector, including private non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator remains robust, projecting fourth-quarter real GDP growth of 4.2%.

Accordingly, market expectations reflected in the FedWatch tool have shifted meaningfully:

For the upcoming meeting on December 10: the implied probability of a 25 bps rate cut has risen to 69.5%, up from 43.6% at the start of last week.
Over the next 12 months: markets are pricing in four 25 bps cuts, which would bring the federal funds target range down to 2.75 - 3.00%.

FOMC Minutes (October Meeting):

The Committee maintains a cautious stance, with members divided over the shifting balance of economic risks.
A majority of participants judged that additional rate cuts will become appropriate over time, although several members noted that they do not view a December cut as warranted.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION (September)

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m): 0,2% (previous: 0.3%)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m): 0.3% (previous: 0.4%)
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y): 3.0% (previous: 3.1%)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y): 3.0% (previous: 2.9%)

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN)

12-month expected inflation (August): 4.5% (prev: 4.6%)
5-year expected inflation (August): 3.4% (prev: 3.9%)

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q2 2025, annualized, third estimate): +3.8% (advance estimate: +3.30%; Q1 2024: – 0.5%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2: 4.0% (vs. 3.9%).

Business Activity Index (PMI) (October):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

Services sector: 54.8 (previous: 54.2)
Manufacturing sector: 52.5 (previous: 52.5)
S&P Global Composite: 54.6 (previous: 53.8)

LABOR MARKET

(Data for September, BLS; October figures will be released later together with the November report)

The labor-market data exceeded expectations across several indicators:

Unemployment rate: 4.4% (previous: 4.3%)
Continuing unemployment claims: 1.947 million (vs. 1.916 million)
Non-farm payrolls: +119K (consensus: –4K)
Private non-farm payrolls: +97K (consensus: +18K)
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.8% (previous: 3.8%)
JOLTS job openings: — (vs. 7.227 million)

MONETARY POLICY

Federal Funds Effective Rate (EFFR): 3.75% - 4.0%
Federal Reserve balance sheet increased: $6,55T (vs. previous week: $6,572T)

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

Expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 10:

Today:

А week earlier:

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: –1.95% (week closed at 6,602.98). Year-to-date performance for 2025: +11.85%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: –3.07% (week closed at 24,239.57). Year-to-date: +14.77%.

VIX

Closed the week at 23.42.

Nvidia delivered a strong earnings outlook accompanied by confident management commentary:

Revenue for the third quarter increased 62% to $57 billion, materially outperforming consensus expectations. Data-center revenue climbed to $51.2 billion, representing 89.8% of total sales.

For the January quarter, the company guided to approximately $65 billion in revenue — about $3 billion above market forecasts. CEO Jensen Huang stated that revenue growth in the coming quarters could exceed the previously indicated $500 billion, highlighting the strength and durability of demand for AI accelerators.

Updated forecasts from BofA Global Research:

EPS estimates for 2026 (these reflect revisions to analysts’ forecasts rather than actual earnings growth).
The most significant upward revisions are concentrated in the technology sector. Key drivers include: strong earnings reports, new AI product cycles, expanding margins, and accelerating cloud and AI-related CapEx.
The sharpest downward revisions are seen in the energy sector, driven by expectations of lower oil prices and weaker demand from China.

Goldman Sachs Forecast:

The U.S. economy is expected to maintain its relative strength, with GDP projected to grow 2.1% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Moderate inflation and a resilient labor market are anticipated to support continued economic expansion.

Eurozone

Interest Rates:

Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%)
Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%)
Main refinancing rate: 2.15% (prev. 2.15%)

Inflation – Consumer Price Index (CPI), October:

Core CPI (y/y): 2.4% (prev. 2.4%)
Headline CPI: m/m: 0.2% (prev. 0.1%). y/y: 2.1% (prev. 2.2%)

GDP for Q3:

q/q: 0.2% (prev. 0.1%)
y/y: slowed to 1.4% (prev. 1.5%)

Unemployment rate (October): 6.3% (prev. 6.3%)

PMI (October):

Services PMI: 53.1 (prev. 53.0)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (prev. 50.0)
S&P Global Composite PMI: 52.4 (prev. 52.5)

The ECB’s economic outlook (as of 17 November 2025) indicates continued growth despite challenging conditions:

Executive Summary

Economic growth in the first nine months of the year outpaced expectations, with real GDP expansion exceeding the annual forecast issued in the spring. While the initial upside surprise was driven by a sharp increase in exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, investment in equipment and intangible assets also performed better than projected. The continuation of growth into the third quarter highlights the resilience of the European economy and its capacity to navigate unprecedented shocks.

Survey data from the European Commission and October PMI indicators suggest that growth momentum will be maintained in the coming quarters. The fundamental conditions for an expansion in economic activity remain intact, despite a challenging external environment and persistent uncertainty.

On a global scale, U.S. tariff levels have risen to their highest point in nearly a century. The forecast assumes that all country- and sector-specific tariffs introduced or formally announced by the U.S. administration as of the cut-off date will remain in force throughout the projection horizon.

ECB Communication Highlights:

Isabel Schnabel: Inflation risks may be tilted to the upside, though the Governing Council could tolerate small deviations from the target.
Peter Kažimír: Some inflationary risks persist within the euro area.
Madis Müller: Favors a pause in the rate-cutting cycle.

Euro Stoxx 600

Weekly performance: –1.86% (week closed at 565.1). Year-to-date: +11.77%.

China

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left key rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month:

1Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR): 3.50%
5Y Loan Prime Rate: 3.50% (benchmark for mortgage lending)

Inflation (October) — deflation has effectively subsided:

CPI:

m/m: 0.2% (prev. –0.3%)
y/y: 0.2% (prev. 0.1%)
PPI (y/y): –2.1% (prev. –2.3%)
Unemployment rate (October): 5.1% (prev. 5.2%)
Industrial production (October, y/y): 4.9% (vs. 6.5%)
Fixed-asset investment (October, y/y): –1.7% (vs. –0.5%)

PMI (October):

Services PMI: 50.1 (prev. 50.0)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 (prev. 49.8)
Composite PMI: 54.8 (prev. 53.9)

CSI 300 Index

Weekly performance: –3.14% (week closed at 4,453.61). Year-to-date: +13.29%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.HK)

Weekly performance: –7.18% (week closed at 5,395.49). Year-to-date: +21.61%.

According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global investors poured more than $50 billion into the Chinese equity market in 2025 — exceeding the total inflows of the past three years combined.

Following last year’s stimulus measures, the downturn in the property market has yet to reverse. In October, prices for both new and existing homes recorded their steepest decline in a year, while mortgage volumes fell by 3.9%.

China is preparing additional measures to support the real estate sector. Policymakers are reportedly considering nationwide mortgage subsidies for first-time buyers as well as tax incentives for borrowers.

BOND MARKET – Decline in Yields (Rise in Prices)

U.S. Treasuries 20+ Years (ETF: TLT):

Weekly performance: +0.81% (week closed at 89.59). Year-to-date: +2.04%.

Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities (10-year constant maturity): 4.06% (vs. 4.15%); 2-year Treasury yield: 3.51% (vs. 3.61%)
ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.05% (vs. 5.07%)

Yields and Spreads

The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 55.0 bps (vs. 54.0 bps).
The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries is 22.0 bps (vs. 26.0 bps).

The cost of the U.S. 5-year credit default swap (CDS) — a measure of default insurance — declined to 31.93 bps (vs. 33.26 bps last week).