On the Right Note: March 2026

On the Right Note is Raison’s regular analytical digest focused on its structured notes portfolio. In each issue, we go beyond reporting results to explain the underlying logic: how market conditions influence performance, how protection mechanisms work, and how strategies behave on actual observation dates. This material helps noteholders better understand their assets and allows investors to assess how protection mechanisms perform in practice.

March: Market Pressure and Rising Volatility

In March 2026, global markets came under pressure amid increasing geopolitical tensions. The tone of major financial regulators shifted from neutral to cautious, with central banks taking a wait-and-see approach. In this environment, structured notes continued to demonstrate resilience thanks to their built-in protection mechanisms.

Between March 1 and March 31, 2026, observation dates occurred for 10 notes:

• 10 notes remained active.
• 1 note was redeemed early via Autocall.
• 2 active notes triggered the Memory Effect.

Market Environment and Key Events

Additional pressure on markets came from a reassessment of expectations in the technology sector, particularly regarding investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

On one hand, software companies, especially in cybersecurity, showed weaker performance, partly due to the growing efficiency of AI-driven development tools. On the other hand, investors became more cautious about rising capital expenditures by major tech companies on AI infrastructure.

By the end of the month, key indices showed negative performance year-to-date (as of March 29, 2026):

• S&P 500: −6.96%
• Nasdaq 100: −8.38%
• Russell 2000: −1.30%
• Euro Stoxx 600: −4.06%
• CSI 300: −3.41%

The VIX volatility index increased from 23.56 (March 1, 2026) to 30.89, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.

Impact on Structured Notes

Despite the correction, the underlying assets of most notes remain comfortably distant from their coupon barriers. Built-in capital protection mechanisms allow investors to navigate periods of elevated volatility without significant losses.

In such conditions, structured notes tend to demonstrate their strengths particularly well: while traditional indices show moderately negative performance, structured products continue to generate returns above market levels due to their structure.

Notes in Detail

We now move from market trends to specific figures. Below are the notes that reached observation dates in March. They are grouped into three categories: Active, Autocalled, and Memory Effect.

Each note card includes:

• Basket composition: underlying assets being tracked.
• Coupon status: whether the coupon was confirmed for the period.
• Actual return: income per $100,000 invested.

Active Notes

Autocalled

Memory Effect

Why the Memory Effect Was Triggered

On the observation date, Enphase Energy (ENPH) traded temporarily below the coupon barrier. Under the terms of the note, the coupon for the period is preserved and will be paid once the asset recovers above the barrier level.

The situation remains broadly consistent with the previous period. In Q4 2025, the company showed improved operating performance: both revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, and it raised its Q1 2026 guidance. This suggests that the current price dynamics are temporary and do not affect the coupon mechanism.

Why the Memory Effect Was Triggered

On the observation date, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) traded temporarily below the coupon barrier. Under the terms of the note, the coupon for the period is preserved and will be paid once the asset recovers above the barrier level.

The pressure on this share price in March was driven by news related to legal proceedings in the United States. The case concerns certain employees and potential violations of export restrictions. At this stage, no charges or restrictions have been imposed on the company itself.

Fundamentally, SMCI remains strong: the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance from $33 billion to $40 billion, while demand for AI-related server infrastructure continues to grow.

Taken together, the current situation can be viewed as temporary, and all accumulated coupons will be paid once the underlying assets recover above their respective barrier levels.

Summary and Outlook

March demonstrated the resilience of Raison’s protective strategies even in a more volatile environment. During the month, 1 note was redeemed early via Autocall, while 10 notes remained active, and 2 triggered the Memory Effect.

The Memory Effect allows investor income to be preserved until market levels recover. In such conditions, structured notes continue to demonstrate their effectiveness, offering a balance between yield and capital protection.

We continue to structure products around key macro trends, maintaining a balance between attractive returns and robust protection mechanisms.

Interested in learning more about Raison structured notes? Please contact our expert to get a personal consultation.