Venture Capital Market: February 2026

Our analysts have reviewed the latest venture market data for early 2026. The current statistics highlight several strong, positive trends — ranging from a shift in the balance between capital supply and demand to record growth in the secondary market.

General Trends: Capital Demand and the AI Influence

A positive, yet subtle, signal for the market is that the ratio of capital demand to supply is decreasing. Meanwhile, the buzz around Artificial Intelligence hasn’t faded. AI remains the main draw for investors and continues to pull capital into the venture segment, where most of these companies are now concentrated.

On one hand, this trend is unevenly distributed across the market: a significant portion of value is concentrated within the top 10 most valuable unicorns. In the venture world, this kind of concentration is actually normal — unlike in public markets, where a similar setup would usually be seen as a red flag for overheating.

Chart: Share of top 10 unicorns in the total valuation of all unicorn companies (2016–2025)

On the other hand, not all investors are ready to increase the AI weight in their portfolios. Some invest through diversified funds that allocate capital across multiple verticals. As a result, alongside AI, we are seeing growth in investments in other sectors.

Chart: Capital demand-to-supply ratio over 15 years

Recovery of Valuations

Among the less-obvious signs of market recovery is the increase in valuation step-ups across funding rounds. Across all key stages of the venture cycle, the median step-up (the growth from the post-money valuation of the current round to the pre-money valuation of the next) has increased over the year. This dynamic is supported by two factors: a revival in investment activity and a surge in secondary market transactions.

Chart: Median step-up by stage over 15 years

The Secondary Market — A New Industry Standard

In our previous review, we noted that the secondary market has firmly established itself as an industry standard. It has become a sophisticated tool for portfolio management and a primary source of liquidity for an increasingly broad range of participants in the venture market.

Chart: Market volumes for Secondaries, IPOs, and M&A at year-end 2025

The 2025 results confirm that this trend is here to stay. In the final quarter of 2025, transaction volume surged by 83.4% over the same period in 2024. At the same time, the market is bracing for a series of massive IPOs. Potential candidates include SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, although their official listing dates are not yet confirmed.

Even if such deals temporarily redistribute liquidity and dampen secondary market activity, analysts agree that the secondaries segment will continue to strengthen as a standalone, structurally significant element of the venture ecosystem.

Chart: Total secondary market dollar volume (annualized by quarter)

Transition to a Qualitative Growth Phase

Data from the beginning of 2026 indicate that the venture market is transitioning into a qualitative growth phase. Recovering valuation step-ups and easing pressure on capital demand are creating a more balanced and predictable investment environment. As expected, AI remains the key driver of capital inflow, ensuring high value concentration in major companies.

At the same time, the secondary market has definitively cemented its role as a vital liquidity channel and portfolio management tool, bolstering the resilience of the entire ecosystem.

We will continue to closely monitor market dynamics and share analytical materials and venture industry news. If you have any remaining questions about the data or outlook, please text us on WhatsApp for real-time insights and support. We’re available to help you navigate your next investment move.