26 января 2026 г.

January 19–25, 2026: Weekly economic update

Key market updates

Over the past week, equity indices posted a broadly neutral performance amid easing geopolitical and trade-related tensions.

Turning to the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump stated that he would not seek to acquire Greenland by force and withdrew the proposed tariffs on European countries, citing the achievement of a framework agreement with NATO regarding a future arrangement involving Greenland. In response, the European Union also suspended the introduction of retaliatory tariffs.

With regard to the economic agenda in Davos, the core narrative was clearly reinforced: investments in digitalization, AI infrastructure, and advanced technologies remain key drivers of the next wave of global economic growth. However, discussions among participants highlighted a growing gap between expectations and realized outcomes. NVIDIA’s CEO emphasized that developing a global AI infrastructure would require investments of several trillion dollars.

On the domestic front, U.S. macroeconomic data came in stronger than expected. Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to 4.4%, reflecting higher consumer spending (2.34%), exports (1.62%), government spending (0.38%), and capital investment (0.03%).

Continuing and initial jobless claims stayed largely unchanged. Inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—came in line with expectations and was unchanged from the previous release at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.

Ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 28, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at just 2.77%.

Over the weekend, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31 jumped from 9% to 74%.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (SEPTEMBER):

Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.6% (prev: 2.6%)
CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.7% (prev: 2.7%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (NOVEMBER):

PPI (m/m): 0.2%, prev: 0.6%
Core PPI (m/m): 0.3%, prev: 0.1%.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (DECEMBER):

12-month inflation expectations: 4.2%, prev: 4.1%
5-year inflation expectations: 3.4%, prev: 3.2%.

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q3 2025, annualized, second estimate): +4.4% (Q2 2025: +3.8%)

GDPNow Indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Q4): 5.4% (prev: 5.3%).

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (DECEMBER):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

Services sector: 52.5 (prev: 52.5);
Manufacturing sector: 51.9 (prev: 51.8);
S&P Global Composite: 52.8 (prev: 52.7).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (December)

Unemployment rate: 4.4% (prev: 4.6%);
Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits in the U.S.: 1,875K (prev: 1,884K, revised);
Initial jobless claims: 200K (prev: 198K);
Change in nonfarm payrolls: 37K (prev: 64K);
Change in private nonfarm payrolls: 37K (prev: 69K);
Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.8% (prev: 3.5%);
Number of job openings (JOLTS): 7.146M (prev: 7.227M).

MONETARY POLICY

Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
Federal Reserve balance sheet: $6.584T, +0.76% since the suspension of quantitative tightening ($6.535T).

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

Ahead of the upcoming meeting (January 28), the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 2.77%.

12-Month Outlook: The market is pricing in two 25 bp rate cuts, bringing the policy rate to a 3.00–3.25% range. The first cut is expected in July, following three FOMC meetings.

Today:

А week earlier:

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: −0.35% (week-end close at 6915,62); year-to-date: +1.02%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +0.3% (week-end close at 25605.47); year-to-date: +1.41%.

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: -0.32% (week-end close at 2669,16); year-to-date: +7,54%.

VIX

The VIX volatility index is 16,08.

Eurozone

Policy rates remain unchanged; inflation is under control.
The monetary policy stance is neutral; however, the balance of risks is now shifting from inflation toward economic weakness.
As trade tensions have eased, the ECB has revised its GDP and inflation forecasts upward for the coming years.
Given these developments, Europe is stabilizing but still trails the U.S. in growth momentum.

Interest Rates

Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (previously 2.0%).
Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (previously 2.4%), the overnight bank funding rate.
Short-term (policy) rate: 2.15% (previously 2.15%).

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI), December

Core CPI (YoY): 2.3% (previously 2.4%).
Headline CPI: 0.2% MoM (previously -0.3%); 1.9% YoY (previously 2.1%).

GDP, Q3 (final)

Quarter-on-quarter: 0.3% (previously 0.1%).
Year-on-year: 1.4% (previously 1.5%).

Unemployment Rate (December): 6.23% (previously 6.4%).

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), January

Services: 51.9 (previously 52.4).
Manufacturing: 49.4 (previously 48.8).
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.5 (unchanged at 51.5).

EURO STOXX 600

Weekly performance: -1.24%; year-to-date: +2.50%.

China

Economic stabilization is primarily driven by exports, while indicators suggest continued weakness in domestic demand and private investment. Policy measures appear selective and measured.

Policy rates remain unchanged.
The monetary policy stance remains accommodative.
China has reiterated its commitment to fiscal measures supporting growth under the 2026 plan. The focus remains on stimulating domestic demand, refining tax incentives and subsidies, and advancing industrial modernization.

Interest Rates

1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.00%.
5Y Loan Prime Rate (five-year rate influencing mortgage pricing): 3.50%.

Inflation Indicators (December)

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 0.2% MoM (previously -0.1%); 0.8% YoY (previously 0.7%).
Producer Price Index (PPI): -1.9% YoY (previously -2.2%).

GDP, Q4 (final)

Quarter-on-quarter: 1.2% (previously 1.1%).
Year-on-year: 4.5% (previously 4.8%).

Unemployment Rate (December): 5.1% (unchanged).

Industrial Production (December, YoY): 5.9% (previously 4.8%).

Fixed Asset Investment (December, YoY): -3.8% (previously -2.6%).

Retail Sales (December, YoY): 0.9% (previously 1.3%).

Trade (December)

Imports: +5.7% YoY (previously +1.9%).
Exports: +6.6% YoY (previously +5.9%).
Trade balance: USD 114.30 billion (previously USD 111.68 billion).

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI), November

Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (previously 49.0).
Non-manufacturing PMI: 49.0 (previously 49.0).
Composite PMI: 49.5 (previously 50.1).

CSI 300 INDEX

Weekly performance: −0.20% (week-end close at 4722,4); year-to-date: +2.00%.

BOND MARKET

Treasury yields and credit spreads do not currently signal a scenario of a deep recession or elevated systemic risk.

U.S. Treasuries 20+ Years (ETF TLT): Weekly performance: +0.15% (week-end close: 87.93). Year-to-date performance: +0.88%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.21% (previously 4.23%).
2-year U.S. Treasury yield: 3.59% (previously 3.60%).
ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index – Effective Yield: 5.03% (previously 5.00%).

5-year U.S. sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) (cost of default protection): 28.34 bps, up from 26.09 bps the prior week.

Today, the U.S. yield curve has returned to a normal shape and reflects a constructive macroeconomic scenario: expectations of a shift by the Federal Reserve toward a more neutral policy stance amid continued economic resilience. Markets are pricing in a gradual deceleration in growth without a recessionary outcome, while not anticipating a return to zero interest rates.

The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury securities stands at 62 basis points (previously 63 bps).

The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury securities stands at 53 basis points (previously 59 bps).

The yield curve serves as a map of market expectations regarding interest rates, the broader economic outlook, and risk perceptions. Each segment of the curve reflects a distinct set of expectations.

How to interpret the curve:

Short end (up to 2 years) — the “Fed zone,” reflecting expectations for the policy rate and near-term FOMC decisions:
Rising yields indicate expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Falling yields suggest that the market is pricing in rate cuts.

At present, the curve implies expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Intermediate segment (3–7 years) — the “macroeconomic expectations zone,” reflecting views on economic growth, medium-term inflation, and the probability of a soft landing versus a sharper slowdown:

The current upward slope relative to short-term rates indicates that the market expects continued economic expansion.
A decline in this segment would signal expectations of slowing growth.

Long end (10–30 years) — the “confidence and long-term risk pricing zone for the U.S.,” reflecting long-term inflation expectations, U.S. fiscal risks, confidence in the dollar and sovereign debt, and the term premium:

Long-term yields remain elevated, indicating that markets are not pricing in a crisis, while fiscal risk and inflation premia persist.
A decline would reflect heightened recessionary or deflationary concerns.

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: +10.61% (week-end close at $5089,1 per troy ounce); year-to-date: +17.47%.

Gold prices continue to rise, supported by sustained demand from central banks and the rapid expansion of global debt amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: -1.74% (week-end close at 97,456); year-to-date: -0.55%.

Following its decline at the end of 2025, the U.S. dollar has entered a phase of stabilization and partial recovery. Expectations of a more neutral Federal Reserve policy stance limit the upside potential for further appreciation, but do not create sustained downward pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support demand for gold and commodity assets.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +3.31% (week-end close at $61.18 per barrel); year-to-date: +6.57%.

Projections for oil supply growth remain intact for the time being.
OPEC+ plans to pause any further increases in oil output.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East—including protests and rising tensions in Iran—are heightening concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Oil prices are edging higher following President Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on trade with the United States targeting countries that maintain commercial relations with Iran.

According to the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to average 930 thousand barrels per day, up from 850 thousand barrels per day in 2025.

The agency expects economic conditions to normalize after last year’s tariff-related shocks and for oil prices to decline relative to the previous year.

The recovery in demand for petrochemical feedstocks is expected to be partially offset by a continued slowdown in gasoline demand growth. In 2026, non-OECD countries are once again expected to account for the entirety of global demand growth.

Observed global oil inventories increased by 470 million barrels in 2025, equivalent to an average build of 1.3 million barrels per day.

The current global surplus is driven by sustained supply growth since early 2025, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase of 3 million barrels per day.

BTC FUTURES

The crypto market is undergoing institutional maturation: the expansion of infrastructure, increased participation by banks, and rising on-chain liquidity are shaping a more mature market without signs of speculative overheating.

Weekly performance: -10.92% (week-end close at $86561,94); year-to-date: -1.32%.