March 30 – April 05, 2026: Weekly economic update

United States (key takeaways)

• The policy rate remains unchanged; the tone is cautious;
• Monetary policy stance remains moderately restrictive;
• U.S. macro data continue to support a soft-landing scenario: inflation risks are rising, the labor market is cooling without signs of recession, and there is no immediate need for rate cuts.

Key points from Powell’s speech at Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts:

• “Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored”;
• “Policy is in a good place to wait” — there is no urgency to either ease or tighten.

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY):

• Core CPI: (m/m) 0.2% (prev: 0.3%); (y/y) 2.5% (prev: 2.5%).
• CPI: (m/m) 0.3% (prev: 0.2%); (y/y) 2.4% (prev: 2.4%).

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY):

• PPI (m/m): 0.7%, prev: 0.5%.
• Core PPI (m/m): 0.5%, prev: 0.8% (revised):

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN) (FEBRUARY):

• 12-month inflation expectations: 3.8%, prev: 3.4%.
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.2%, prev: 3.3%.

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q4 2025, annualized, second estimate): +0.7% (Q3 2025: +4.4%):

The GDPNow indicator (a “real-time” estimate of official GDP prior to its release) by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: 1.6% (previous: 2.3%).

BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (PMI) (MARCH, PRELIMINARY DATA):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

• Services sector: 51.1 (prev: 51.7);
• Manufacturing sector: 52.4 (prev: 51.6);
• S&P Global Composite: 51.4 (prev: 51.9).

LABOR MARKET (BLS) (FEBRUARY)

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% (prev: 4.4%);
• Total number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S.: 1,819K (prev: 1,851K);
• Initial jobless claims: 202K (prev: 211K);
• Change in nonfarm payroll employment: 178K (prev: -133K);
• Change in private nonfarm payroll employment: 186K (prev: -129K);
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): 3.5% (prev: 3.8%);
• JOLTS job openings: 6.542M (prev: 6.928M).

MONETARY POLICY

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.50%–3.75%;
• The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet stands at $6.675 trillion, up 2.14% since the suspension of QT ($6.535 trillion):

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE (FEDWATCH)

At the upcoming meeting (April 29), the estimated probability of maintaining the current policy rate stands at 99.48%:

Over the next 12 months, the market is not pricing in any rate cuts:

Today:

А week earlier:

Powell, speaking in Cambridge on the issue of private credit:

“At this stage, we are not observing any spillover of problems from the private credit sector. The financial system is currently resilient, and private credit represents a relatively small share of the broader asset pool. We are closely monitoring developments in private sector lending.”

The share of direct lending in the total debt of U.S. households and businesses stands at just 3% of their total outstanding liabilities:

For comparison, at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, mortgage loans accounted for approximately 60% of households' and businesses' total debt.

Market

SP500

Weekly performance: 3,36% (week-end close at 6582,68); year-to-date: -3,84%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +3,95% (week-end close at 24045,53); year-to-date: -4,77%.

VIX

VIX (Volatility Index): 23,87

RUSSEL 2000 (RUT)

Weekly performance: +3,95% (week-end close at 24045,53); year-to-date: -4,77%.

Chart of the four-week change in 12-month forward EPS estimates for the S&P 500 technology sector. The largest increase since records began (1995) has been observed. Latest data point: approximately +8–9%.

On the one hand: geopolitics → oil → inflation → pressure on liquidity. At the same time, however, earnings expectations for technology companies are rising sharply.

This can be explained by the fact that, over the medium term, technology companies are less sensitive to input shocks and are not directly dependent on oil, fertilizers, and similar cost drivers.

As a result, margins remain more resilient, further supported by a deep AI-driven capex cycle.

Dynamics of corporate earnings (EPS) in the United States:

Corporate earnings in the United States remain a key pillar of market support. In 2024–2025, actual EPS growth consistently exceeded analysts’ expectations, establishing a sustained pattern of positive earnings surprises.

EPS for 1Q26 came in at 12%, surpassing the previous two years' results. Looking ahead, despite the 2026 conflict with Iran, the consensus forecast continues to project strong year-over-year earnings growth of 18–20%.

Eurozone

• Policy rates remain unchanged for now, but inflation risks are rising;
• The monetary policy stance is broadly neutral, though the balance of risks is tilted toward inflation;
• As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, the ECB has revised its GDP forecasts downward and raised its inflation outlook for the coming years.

Interest rates:

• Deposit facility rate: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%);
• Marginal lending facility rate: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%) (the rate at which banks can access overnight funding from the central bank);
• Short-term (key policy) rate: 2.15% (prev. 2.15%).

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March, preliminary data):

• Core CPI (YoY): 2.3% (prev. 2.4%):

• CPI (MoM): 1.2% (prev. 0.6%);

• CPI (YoY): 2.5% (prev. 1.9%):

EURO STOXX 600 (FXXP1!)

Weekly performance: +3,65% (Week-end close: 590,7); Year-to-date: -0,56%.

China

The economy is stabilizing on the back of exports, while domestic demand and investment remain weak; stimulus measures are targeted and cautious.

• Policy rates remain unchanged;
• The monetary policy stance is accommodative;
• China has reaffirmed continued fiscal support for economic growth within its 2026 plan (stimulating domestic demand, optimizing tax incentives and subsidies, and industrial modernization).

Interest rates:

• 1Y Loan Prime Rate (medium-term lending): 3.00%;
• 5Y Rate (five-year rate, influencing mortgages): 3.50%.

Inflation indicators (February):

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM): 0.1% (prev. 0.2%); (YoY): 1.3% (prev. 0.2%);

• Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY): -0.9% (prev. -1.4%):

• GDP for 4Q (final): QoQ: 1.2% (prev. 1.1%); YoY: 4.5% (prev. 4.8%)

• Unemployment rate (February): 5.3% (prev. 5.1%)

• Industrial production (February, YoY): 6.3% (prev. 5.9%)

• Fixed asset investment (January, YoY): -3.8% (prev. -2.6%)

• Retail sales (January, YoY): 0.9% (prev. 1.3%)

• Imports (February, YoY): 19.8% (prev. 5.7%)

• Exports (February, YoY): 21.8% (prev. 6.6%)

• Trade balance (USD, February): $213.62 billion (prev. $114.11 billion):

Business activity indices (PMI) (February):

• Manufacturing sector: 50.1 (prev. 49.5);
• Non-manufacturing sector: 50.4 (prev. 49.0);
• Composite index: 50.5 (prev. 49.5).

CSI 300 INDEX (000300.HK)

Weekly performance: -1,37% (week-end close at 4440,7889); Year-to-date: -4,74%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH)

Weekly performance: -2,07% (week-end close: 4679,1); year-to-date: -15,0%.

The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) forecasts global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged) and 3.0% in 2027 (up from the previous forecast of 3.1%).

BOND MARKET

U.S. Treasury bonds 20+ years (ETF TLT): weekly performance: +1,34% (week close: 86,79); year-to-date: -0,42%. The price rebounded from a local support level.

YIELDS AND SPREADS

By the end of the week, yields posted a marginal decline.

• Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.36% (prev. 4.39%);
• 2-year Treasury yield: 3.86% (prev. 3.88%);
• ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.31% (prev. 5.29%).

• The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 50 basis points (prev. 51);
• The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries stands at 65 basis points (prev. 69).

The cost of a 5-year U.S. credit default swap (CDS) (default insurance): 37.31 bps (vs. 37.81 bps last week).

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: +4,17% (week close: $4679,7 per troy ounce); Year-to-date: +8,02%. Most central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: +11,93% (week-end close: $111,54 per barrel). Year-to-date performance: +94,29%

• IEA member countries have begun drawing on reserves;
• OPEC+ will increase output by 206,000 barrels per day in May;
• Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may take on a more prolonged, structural character.

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day in May. However, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure damage in key Gulf countries, the actual increase in supply will be minimal.

The closure of the strait has reduced shipments by 12–15 million barrels per day (up to 15% of global supply).

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: -0,01% (week-end close: 100,185). Year-to-date performance: +2,23%.

BTC FUTURES

Weekly performance +4,62% (week-end close: $68999); year-to-date: -21,34%.

ETH FUTURES

Weekly performance +6,24% (week-end close: $2106,3); year-to-date: -29,17%.

The net long positions of large traders in non-commercial activity, according to the COT report, increased to 2,106 contracts. At present, hedge funds and asset managers are the most bullish they have been in the past two years and continue to steadily build long-term positions.

Last Monday, the U.S. Department of Labor proposed a rule requiring regulators to expand access to digital assets within pension portfolios.

TOTAL CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Total crypto market capitalization: $2,38 trillion (vs $2,33 trillion a week earlier) (coinmarketcap.com).

Crypto asset market shares:

• Bitcoin: 58.5% (58.0%)
• Ethereum: 10.9% (10.6%)
• Others: 30.6% (31.3%).

ETF Net Flows Chart: