8 сентября 2025 г.

September 1–5, 2025: Weekly economic update

Key market updates

Macroeconomic Statistics

INFLATION

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (June): 0,3% (previous: 0.2%)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (June): 0.2% (previous: 0.3%)
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (June): 3.1% (previous: 2.9%)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (June): 2.7% (previous: 2.7%)

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (MICHIGAN)

12-month expected inflation (August): 4.8% (prev: 4.9%)
5-year expected inflation (August): 3.5% (prev: 3.4%)

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI):

PPI (m/m) (August): 0.9%, prev: 0.0%
Core PPI (m/m) (August): 0.9%, prev: 0.0%

GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA) (Q2 2025, annualized, second estimate): +3.30% (advance estimate: 3.0%; Q1 2024: –0.5%):

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate (Q2): 3.0% (vs. 3.5%).

*(The GDPNow forecasting model provides a “real-time” estimate of official GDP growth ahead of its release, using a methodology similar to that employed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.)

Business Activity Index (PMI):

(Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction)

Services sector (August): 55.4 (previous: 55.7)
Manufacturing sector (July): 53.0 (previous: 53,3)
S&P Global Composite (August): 54.6 (previous: 55.4)

LABOR MARKET:

Unemployment rate (August): 4.3% (previous: 4.2%)
Nonfarm payroll employment change (August): 22K (previous: 79K revised)
Change in US private nonfarm payrolls (August): 38K (prev: 77K)
Average hourly earnings (August, y/y): 3.7% (previous: 3.9%)
JOLTS job openings (August): 7.181M (vs. 7.357M)

According to surveys, more than 62% of economic agents anticipate a rise in unemployment.

MONETARY POLICY

Federal Funds Effective Rate (EFFR): 4.25% - 4.50% (unchanged)
Federal Reserve balance sheet increased: $6,602T (vs. previous week: $6,603T)

MARKET FORECAST FOR RATE

Today:

А week earlier:

Commentary

U.S. labor market data (the Fed’s second mandate) indicated a marked cooling.

The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%—not critical, yet still an increase. Private-sector payrolls expanded by only 38,000, well below expectations. Job openings continued to contract, while initial jobless claims kept climbing.

Surveys by Javier and the University of Michigan point to peak expectations for rising unemployment, aligning with corporate executives’ recent commentary on headcount reductions in the latest reporting period.

Bottom line: the probability of both higher inflation and higher unemployment is elevated. The prevailing market narrative remains focused on a Fed rate cut.

Market expectations according to FedWatch:

For the upcoming meeting (September 17): the implied probability of a rate cut stands at 90.0%.
Over the next 12 months: six cuts of 25 bps are priced in, bringing the target range down to 2.75–3.00%.
By year-end: three cuts are already anticipated.

Fed “Beige Book”:

“Minimal or no changes” in economic activity were reported across most of the 12 districts, with only a few noting moderate growth.
In all districts, contacts cited a decline in consumer spending, as household wages failed to keep pace with rising prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighed on the economy: 10 out of 12 districts reported “modest to moderate” inflation, while the remaining two saw “significant increases in prices for raw materials and inputs.”
Respondents frequently highlighted economic uncertainty and tariffs as key headwinds.

Key Takeaways from the National Bank of Kazakhstan Meeting – Rhetoric Turned Slightly More Hawkish

The central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16.5% (±1 pp corridor), given still-elevated inflation currently at 11.8% YoY.
The regulator noted that the contribution of food products to annual inflation has now exceeded that of services, which previously remained the main driver of price growth. Service-sector inflation has slowed, partly due to decelerating growth in regulated tariffs.
Monthly inflation eased to 0.7%, but remains well above the long-term average of 0.4% (2015–2024).
Medium-term forecasts were left unchanged: inflation is projected at 11–12.5% in 2025, 9.5–11.5% in 2026, and 5.5–7.5% in 2027.
The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 5.5–6.5%, while the 2026 forecast was maintained at 4–5%.
The absence of a meaningful slowdown in inflation in the coming months would provide grounds for tightening monetary conditions further, in order to steer inflation back toward the 5% medium-term target. Based on this, the Monetary Policy Committee will consider the feasibility of a rate hike at upcoming meetings.

Market

By the end of the week, the median decline stood at +0.07%. Leading sectors: basic materials, real estate, and consumer discretionary.

YTD performance: +3.58%. The leading sectors remain utilities, basic materials, and communication services. The main laggards are technology (-5.33%) and healthcare (-8.68%).

SP500

Weekly gain: +0.33% (week closed at 6,481.51). Year-to-date 2025 performance: +9.80%.

NASDAQ100

Weekly performance: +1.01% (week closed at 23,652.44). Year-to-date: +11.99%.

Euro Stoxx 600

Weekly performance: +0.15% (week closed at 552.0). Year-to-date growth: +9.18%.

CSI Index

As of Monday: +1.60% (week closed at 4,467.47). Year-to-date growth: +13.65%.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.HK)

As of Monday: -0.83% (5,750.69).

China’s manufacturing PMI (RatingDog, formerly Caixin) returned to expansion territory, climbing to a five-month high of 50.5, driven by the strongest increase in new orders since March. The uptick was fueled by domestic demand, as new export orders continued to contract. The services PMI also shifted back into growth.

According to MacroMicro, the probability of a global recession declined to 32% in August.

The indicator assesses the likelihood of a deterioration in the global economic outlook, including that of the United States, with a baseline set at 50%. A reading well above 50% sustained over a prolonged period signals a high probability of global recession. Accordingly, the current reading suggests a low risk of recession.

BOND MARKET

Weekly recap – sharp decline in yields. U.S. Treasury Bonds 20+ (ETF TLT): weekly performance +2.26%(week closed at 88.56). Year-to-date 2025: +0.87%.

YIELDS AND SPREADS 2025/08/25 vs 2025/08/18

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity: 4.10% (vs. 4.24%).
ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Effective Yield: 5.03% (vs. 5.06%).
Yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries: 57.0 bps vs. 62.0 bps.
Yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasuries: 16.52 bps vs. 9.0 bps.

GOLD FUTURES (GC)

Weekly performance: +3.71% (another all-time high, week closed at $3,646.5/oz). Year-to-date growth: +38.07%.

Goldman Sachs projects gold to reach $4,000 by mid-2026 under its base case, $4,500 in a low-risk scenario, and nearly $5,000 if 1% of the private Treasury market shifts into gold. Goldman identifies gold as its strongest long-term recommendation among commodities.

DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES (DX)

Weekly performance: -0.11% (week closed at 97.67). Year-to-date 2025: -9.84%.

OIL FUTURES

Weekly performance: -1.67% (week closed at $62.94/bbl). Year-to-date: -12.40%.

Oil prices edged higher today after OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October — well below expectations. However, the International Energy Agency forecasts a record oil surplus next year, with a bearish outlook pointing toward $50.